Davos Predictions, ECB's Window, Globalization Thrives: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help round off your week:

• For all the hand-wringing and headlines over the fallout of the U.S. government shutdown, most forecasters still don’t expect it to cause too much pain to the economy so long as it doesn’t endure
  • Economists are downplay indicators that say a U.S. recession is coming
• Davos kicks off next week, and delegates’ predictions may be worth listening to. After all, their forecasts proved accurate in seeing the stock market selloff of 2018.
• The European Central Bank will only have a narrow window to raise interest rates before the euro-area economy becomes too weak, according to a Bloomberg survey of the economists.
  • Staying in Europe, Bloomberg Economics expects Spain’s economy to slow in coming quarters as slack is finally used up.
• More Bank of Japan watchers see it keeping policy unchanged this year, underscoring growing risks to the economy and its inflation efforts; but where is the central bank’s pain threshold?
• Southeast Asia, seen as a potential winner from the U.S.-China trade war, is starting to see more sour data as tensions weigh heavily on the trade-reliant region.
• The Trump administration is said to be considering whether to renominate Marvin Goodfriend to join the Federal Reserve Board.
• Read why globalization is thriving, despite Donald Trump’s efforts to kill it.
• Finally, here’s our weekly wrap of what’s going on in the world economy.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint, Lucy Meakin

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