Citigroup Says Time to Get Out of 10-Year Treasuries After Rally

(Bloomberg) -- The rally in Treasuries has gone too far for now, according to Citigroup Inc.

Investors should take profits in long 10-year Treasury positions, as a possible double-bottom technical pattern and potential weakening in momentum suggests yields could bounce back to 2.60% in the short term, strategists including Jeremy Hale wrote in a note Wednesday. They were at 2.38% as of 6:37 a.m. in London.

“The 10-year yield has bounced from our initial target of 2.35% and looks to have put in a double bottom, potentially aiming for the top of its year-to-date downtrend at 2.60%,” they wrote. “We are taking profits on our long 10-year position and look to re-enter if yields bounce back.”

The yield on the benchmark U.S. note has fallen about 12 basis points so far this month as a re-ignited U.S.-China trade war boosted haven assets. Investors still expect an interest-rate cut by the end of the year, though minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting showed officials expect patience on rates to be appropriate for “some time.”

Bank of America Corp. lowered its forecasts for U.S. Treasury and other developed-market bond yields in a note Wednesday, saying it’s lost hope for a speedy resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute.

For the Citigroup strategists, the double-bottom pattern could provide a degree of short-term support for yields. They also noted the relative strength indicator -- a gauge of momentum -- has been in a modest uptrend even as yields have fallen. This divergence suggests a slowing in the weakness in yields, they said.

The strategists remain bullish duration over the medium term as the U.S. economy slows, according to the note.

“It’s possible that there could be some profit taking close to current levels,” they wrote. “Corrections can range in size from 10-25 basis points and last between two weeks and a month.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Cormac Mullen in Tokyo at cmullen9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Andreea Papuc

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