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China Deal Intact, U.S. Misery, Freeze of Work Visas: Eco Day

China Deal Intact, U.S. Misery, Freeze of Work Visas: Eco Day

Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get you through to the day:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said the phase one trade deal with China is “fully intact,” after his adviser Peter Navarro sowed confusion and spurred a temporary stock slump with comments interpreted as a decision to end the agreement
  • Transatlantic relations could reach a new low next month as the European Union readies tariffs on billions of dollars of U.S. exports aimed at politically important industries for Trump and his Republican allies in Congress
  • A record high reading for the Misery Index -- the sum of the unemployment and inflation rate -- suggests economic factors will not be working in President Donald Trump’s favor at the November election
  • Trump signed an order temporarily halting access to several employment-based visas, affecting hundreds of thousands of people seeking to work in the U.S.
  • Hopes for a “V-shaped” recovery from the virus recession required a number of conditions to be met, Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik and Björn van Roye write. Many major economies haven’t fulfilled them, meaning this is going to be a stepped recovery
    • The World Trade Organization tempered its pessimism about the outlook for cross-border commerce, saying its worst-case scenario for this year will likely be avoided
  • China’s rapid rebound from the coronavirus means it’s poised for another year of growth while the U.S. contracts
  • The pick up in euro-area economic activity after the lifting of lockdowns in June is doing little to change the picture of a long, slow recovery and rising unemployment
  • The biggest weapon in the arsenal Europe assembled to counter the coronavirus economic collapse has yet to find the target as less than 15% of fund governments made available as loan guarantees has been used. Meanwhile, Spain is considering doubling down on the plan
  • World Bank President David Malpass expects private creditors to work out a methodology to join the Group of 20 in providing debt relief for the world’s poorest economies to help them fight the global pandemic

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