Central Banks in 2019, Germany Dodges Recession, Brexit: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Tuesday started:

• Central banks have entered the new year under pressure from investors to rethink just how aggressive they can be hiking interest rates. Here’s our guide to what the world’s institutions will do in 2019
• That’s even true for the Fed, where Vice Chairman Richard Clarida left open the possibility the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates in 2019 fewer than the two times projected by policy makers
  • Meanwhile, with the U.S. growth outlook hangings more than ever on American consumers’ resilience, key data on their spending -- the biggest part of the economy -- will be missing due to the government shutdown
• At the ECB, Mario Draghi will break his silence after sitting through a month of growing doubts over the durability of the region’s economic expansion
  • Still, there was a slither of better news from Germany Tuesday, as a report showed the economy narrowly avoided a recession at the end of 2018
• In the U.K., economists are slowly paring expectations for Bank of England action in 2019, but they remain more optimistic than investors
• Brexit is key to that outlook, and it’s a crunch day for Theresa May’s deal. Here’s Bloomberg Economics guide to how things may play out after the critical vote in Westminster
• In China, the government is turning increasingly to tax cuts as the first line of defense against a slowing economy, in a departure from the wasteful infrastructure binges of the past
  • Credit growth exceeded expectations in December, indicating the government and central bank’s efforts to spur lending are having an effect

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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