Central Bankers’ Sober View, 2nd Term Assumptions, PMIs: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • The U.S. and the rest of the industrial world may have to resign themselves to an extended period of slow economic growth, subdued inflation and low interest rates. The trick will be in avoiding something even worse. That’s the sobering message from the American Economic Association’s annual conference
    • Here are the highlights from the hundreds of papers and presentations are made at this year’s AEA conference
  • Investors should be careful about assuming that strong U.S. economic conditions guarantee that President Donald Trump will win another term in November, Morgan Stanley strategists warned
  • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said a potential escalation of U.S. tensions with Iran is among the shocks that could threaten America’s record-long economic expansion, which for now looks “quite healthy”
  • It’s not been a great decade for the global economy. Advanced economies have settled into a slower growth path. Emerging markets have struggled to escape the middle income trap. What will the next decade bring? It’s not all bad news, write Bloomberg Economics
  • The euro-zone economy edged gradually away from stagnation at the end of 2019 as services picked up to counter moribund manufacturing, according to the latest PMI reading
    • Data also revealed that the U.K.’s dominant services sector showed signs of strengthening at the end of the year following Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory

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