Carney's Brexit Gloom, Fed Pullback, ECB's Asset Plans: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Thursday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • Bank of England chief Mark Carney has never shied away from doomsday Brexit warnings, but his latest analysis has gone further than ever
  • Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said the populist government must take into account “the fears of our European partners” and the concerns of investors in a dispute with the EU over the country’s budget
  • End of QE: The European Central Bank is unlikely to announce new long-term bank loans when it sets monetary policy next month, and is still on track to confirm the end of net asset purchases
  • Less Hawkish: Jerome Powell said interest rates are “just below” estimates of the so-called neutral level. By saying so, he has opened the door for a potential pullback in projected rate increases in 2019
  • Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin privately asked bond dealers and investors whether they want the Fed to tighten policy by raising rates or through faster cuts in its securities portfolio
  • Renewed threat: President Donald Trump raised the prospect of slapping a 25 percent tariff on imported cars and ordered a review of China’s retaliatory auto tariffs against the U.S.
  • The IMF warned global economic growth may be slowing more than it forecast only a month ago, as Asia gets hit by a slew of weak GDP reports underscoring that view
  • Japan’s retail sales rose more than expected in October, offering a sign that consumer spending may support the economy’s return to health after it shrank in a disaster-hit third quarter
  • A banking liquidity crunch and weak business sentiment outweighed signs of a revival in consumer demand during India’s festival season, keeping the outlook for the world’s fastest-growing major economy muted
  • The Bank of Korea looks set to end a year-long hiatus by increasing borrowing costs this week, adding to a flurry of interest-rate hikes in Asian emerging markets this month

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