Biggest Jobs Loss Since 2009 Tests Canadian Resolve on Rates
Canada Posts Largest Job Loss Since 2009 on Full-Time Drop
(Bloomberg) --
Canada’s job market unexpectedly weakened for a second-straight month, registering the biggest drop in employment since 2009 and setting up a test of the Bank of Canada’s resolve to hold off from lowering interest rates.
The economy lost 71,200 jobs in November, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa, following a decline of 1,800 in the prior month. That pares the total number of jobs added this year to around 285,100. The unemployment rate increased to 5.9% in the month, from 5.5% in October, the biggest one-month jump since 2009.
Canada’s dollar sank on the report, which cast doubt on the resiliency of the country’s domestic outlook, which has been driven largely by a jobs market that has been generating some of the fastest gains in decades. Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada cited a tightening labor market as a main reason why it can buck the global easing trend and keep its policy rate at the highest levels among advanced economies.
“Canada’s November jobs numbers were weak across their details and cast fresh doubt on the Bank of Canada’s room to chart its own course,” Brett House, deputy chief economist at Scotiabank in Toronto, wrote in a note to clients. “This gives fresh support to our call for a cut from the Bank of Canada” in the first quarter.
Investors are assigning about 60% odds of a rate cut in the next year, according to swaps trading.
Canada’s dollar fell 0.6% to C$1.3251 per U.S. dollar at 9:44 a.m. in Toronto trading, paring most of the gains over the past three days following the Bank of Canada’s more hawkish-than-expected rate decision on Wednesday. Yields on Canadian two-year government bonds fell to 1.65%, from 1.68%.
The report missed the median economist forecast for a gain of 10,000 jobs. The decrease in employment was broad-based among both the goods-producing and service-producing sectors.
Still, the picture for all of 2019 is relatively solid, and the country remains on pace for one of the strongest years of employment over the past two decades. Wage gains also remain robust, with pay increases for permanent employees up 4.4% on the year.
But the jobs market is clearly losing steam. The number of people unemployed jumped by 71,600 in November, also the biggest one-month increase since 2009.
Maybe more worrying has been private-sector employment, which has been sluggish for months and posted another big drop in November.
(An earlier version of this story was corrected to show private-sector employment was the biggest driver of losses.)
--With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shelly Hagan in Ottawa at shagan9@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Theophilos Argitis at targitis@bloomberg.net, Chris Fournier, Stephen Wicary
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