California Census Czar Shifts Tactics to Prevent Undercount

(Bloomberg) -- California warned bond investors two years ago that the 2020 Census may put the state at a disadvantage if the population count isn’t accurate. Now, the coronavirus not only poses a threat to its finances but makes it even harder to compel responses to the federal survey that determines how aid is apportioned.

California’s partners in its $187 million campaign to ensure a comprehensive count have shifted from physical events to virtual ones, such as on Facebook, as several counties and then the state ordered residents to stay at home, said Maricela Rodriguez, director of civic engagement and strategic partnerships for Governor Gavin Newsom. Some are targeting areas that have some foot traffic, such as grocery stores and food banks, to disseminate information about the Census. The state is also focusing on its direct media strategy, running ads on television and social media.

“We would have a severe undercount if we don’t pivot quickly,” Rodriguez said in a telephone interview. “We need to monitor closely our response rates and do everything we can to ensure we’re reaching our hardest to count populations.”

Read more: U.S. Census Bureau suspends field work on virus concern

The coronavirus and actions to stem its spread are the latest challenge to states such as California, which flagged the outbreak as a risk in its March bond sale documents. The most-populous U.S. state is home to about 22% of the residents nationally that are considered hard to reach for the survey such as the foreign born and the poor. The U.S. Census Bureau has suspended its field operations to mid-April from mid-March because of the pandemic.

Invitations to households to answer questions by mail or online started arriving in mailboxes March 12. As of March 30, California’s response rate is similar to that nationally -- 35.7% and 36.2% respectively. But officials are seeing low responses in rural counties, which haven’t received their forms because the Census postponed visits to homes that rely on post office boxes, Rodriguez said.

The county with the lowest rate is Trinity, with just 1.7%. As a result, the state’s Census campaign will mail these homes materials letting them know they can participate in the count now, she said.

At risk: a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and billions of dollars in federal aid.

“Even before this happened, we knew there is a lot at stake for an undercount,” Rodriguez said. “Having a complete and accurate count is critical.”

Here are the counties with the highest response rates as of March 30:

Here are the counties with the lowest:

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.