Byron Wien Predicts S&P 500 Will Top 3,500 as Fed Cuts Rates

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks will extend their record-setting rally in 2020 as subdued economic growth prompts the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.

The S&P 500 will climb above 3,500 at some point this year, Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Group Inc.’s private wealth solutions business, wrote in a statement along with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle. Economic growth will trail forecasts and the central bank will lower its benchmark rate to 1%, they predict. The equity gauge recently traded at 3,234 and Fed’s fund rate stood at 1.75% while economists tracked by Bloomberg expect U.S. gross domestic product to expand 1.8% this year.

“The economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided,” they wrote. “S&P 500 multiples remain elevated because monetary policy is easy and investors become more comfortable that intermediate interest rates will rise slowly.”

Wien, 86, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who’s put out his “surprises” list since 1986, is one of the most widely followed on Wall Street. A year ago, he predicted the S&P 500 would climb 15%, with the economy continuing to expand and the Federal Reserve refraining from raising interest rates. The benchmark index rallied 29% and the central bank cut rates three times.

Some of his forecasts for last year proved prescient, including a rally in Chinese shares and a flat U.S. dollar. His optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal to be reached in the first quarter, however, turned out to be misplaced. He also misjudged the chances for the U.K. to stay in the European Union and Theresa May to remain as prime minister.

For the coming year, Wien and Zidle predict that the U.S. and China will not reach a comprehensive phase two trade deal. To spur growth, President Donald Trump will cut payroll taxes, they say. While U.S. growth slows, foreign demand for Treasuries is expected to stay elevated as negative interest rates persist overseas. As a result, yields on 10-year Treasuries approaches 2.5% and the yield curve steeps, they forecast.

Wien says his surprise list is made up of events that investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but that he thinks are more than 50 percent likely. Below are the duo’s other calls for 2020:

• Certain FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google’s parent Alphabet) lose long-standing leadership as tech firms face growing political scrutiny and social blowback
• Boeing shares return as market leaders as problems with its 737 Max are fixed and deliveries begin
• Oil rallies above $70 a barrel as Iran steps up acts of hostility against Israel and Saudi Arabia
• A major auto-maker or technology company issues a statement that they’re no longer developing self-driving technology after a series of accidents with experimental vehicles
• The Democrats take the Senate in November
• U.K. economic growth exceeds 2% with a workable Brexit deal secured; the country’s stocks and currency rally

To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at bolesen3@bloomberg.net, Will Daley, Jeremy R. Cooke

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