Brussels Edition: Orban Showdown

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The European People’s Party is scheduled to vote today on whether to expel the party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who’s become a standard bearer for nationalists. Ejection may sharpen the battle lines between mainstream parties and populists ahead of European elections and lend momentum to efforts to rein in countries seen as breaching the rule of law. But many in the center-right bloc are wary of Orban joining euroskeptic parties, which may lead the group to back suspension or a face-saving compromise with the illiberal leader. 

What’s Happening

What Next? | Britain’s messy divorce from the EU is once again stuck between the demands of Theresa May’s divided government and the reality of what the bloc is willing to offer her — this time over how long the delay to Brexit should be. As we await May’s letter asking for an extension to avoid a cliff-edge exit next week, the EU is playing hardball.

Google Fine | Google is set to get its third — and potentially last — antitrust fine from the EU today: this time over an advertising service. The company is seeking to shut down nearly a decade of EU antitrust investigations on other fronts. The Alphabet Inc. unit is making changes to the way it displays ads for shopping search results and will prompt Android mobile-phone users to pick alternative web browser and search, it said in a blog post.

Dutch Troubles | Dutch voters will cast ballots in provincial elections today, with polls indicating that Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s coalition is set to lose its hold in the country’s Senate. The loss means his cabinet, which already was governing with the narrowest of majorities in both houses of parliament, will depend on opposition support to push through legislation.

Finland’s Challenge | Juha Sipila resurrected Finland’s economy, but efforts to cut spending and revamp health care proved to be his undoing. With polls showing the prime minister trailing ahead of the April 14 election, the challenge of squeezing more out of its world-class welfare will now fall to his successor. Meanwhile, in a Nordic twist, Finnish voters may also get an unexpected say in naming Mario Draghi’s successor.

In Case You Missed It

Merger Talks | Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are getting down to the finer details of how a takeover could actually work. With talks expected to last at least four weeks, there’s a mountain of thorny issues to work through including cost cuts — and where to make them — and balance-sheet risks. Here are the key questions they’ll likely focus on.

Rule of Law | Germany and Belgium claimed widespread support in the EU for a proposal to strengthen oversight of governments’ respect for democratic standards. The issue has gained urgency in recent years as pushes in Hungary, Poland and Romania for greater political control over state institutions spark fears of a shift toward authoritarian rule. 

5G Stand | Angela Merkel signaled she’s loath to cave in to U.S. pressure to bar Huawei, saying she won’t single out individual vendors as Berlin toughens its security requirements for mobile networks. Her comments came as Germany started selling 5G-ready airwaves to carriers including Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and Telefonica — a critical rollout as it tries to reduce its dependence on old-school engineering.

Contrasting Core | Germany’s economic boom is “over for now,” according to the government’s council of economic advisers, which slashed its growth forecast for this year. That’s in contrast to France, where the statistics agency said the economy will perform better in the coming quarter than previously anticipated.

Chart of the Day

Refugees and jobs — rather than Brexit and protectionism — top the list of concerns for European voters, according to a survey by marketing firm Edelman Brussels. Populist parties hope to capitalize on persistent fears about immigration, as they seek to dislodge Europe’s two biggest political groups in EU Parliament elections in May. Climate change also makes it to the top three of the list.

Today’s Agenda

All times CET.

• EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, EU Council President Donald Tusk hold meeting with social partners ahead of EU Summit; press conference expected at around 5 p.m. 
• 7 p.m. Tusk, Juncker have working dinner with Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko
• Europe’s center-right political parties to decide whether to expel Orban’s party from their ranks 
• EU lower court rules in a 2006 appeal by Hercules Club de Futbol against a European Commission decision accusing it of having benefited from illegal state aid
• Italian Senate votes on whether to block legal case involving Salvini refusing access to migrant ship last summer

--With assistance from Nick Rigillo and Aoife White.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Zoe Schneeweiss at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net

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