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Brexit Bulletin: Will May Pay the Price?

Brexit Bulletin: Will May Pay the Price?

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: As Parliament seizes control for a day, Theresa May could be forced to choose between her deal and her job.

Prime Minister Theresa May could finally have a route to get her much-maligned Brexit deal through Parliament. The unpalatable price of progress might be her job.

Some in May’s Conservative Party are increasingly worried that Brexit is at risk of being softened, or even cancelled. As a result more are signaling they could shift and back her deal. But several said May would have to go in order to secure their support. Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that he could only consider backing the deal if there was “a massive change in the U.K.’s negotiating approach.”

May will speak at a private meeting of Conservative MPs on Wednesday evening in another attempt to try to persuade them to vote with her, with some suggesting that could be the moment she lays out her departure plans.

Events have been accelerated by Wednesday’s order of business in Westminster. Members of Parliament will today vote on competing visions of Brexit using paper ballots that will let them back as many proposals as they like. The options on the table could include holding a second referendum or staying in the EU’s customs unions and single market. 

May doesn’t necessarily have to abide by anything lawmakers decide today, meaning things could be things could soon get pretty complicated

Brexit Bulletin: Will May Pay the Price?

Indeed, while the votes are a huge blow to May’s authority, they could also help her – either by demonstrating that no alternative to the prime minister’s plan can command a majority, or by settling on a softer Brexit that causes euroskeptics in her party to rally behind her agreement.

That approach seemed to bear fruit when Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, shifted position, eventually declaring in the Daily Mail that he’ll back May’s deal (if Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party does the same).

Brexit Bulletin: Will May Pay the Price?

Other Tory Brexiteers made similar statements, but the question remains whether it will be enough, or too little, too late. 

Under terms set out by the EU May has until Friday to get her deal through Parliament. Her team are still gauging whether to bring the deal back for a third vote. As well as getting wavering Tories on side, the chances of success also depends on convincing the DUP – who may prove more difficult to persuade.

Brexit Bulletin: Will May Pay the Price?

Today’s Must-Reads

Brexit in Brief

Next Steps | Parliament will next have control of its own agenda on Monday, which could be used to narrow options further, or to order the government to pursue a particular course of action. That’s also the day that will see lawmakers debate the record-breaking petition to revoke Article 50.

Official Delay | In between tomorrow’s votes, the government will also lead a debate on a legal order that needs to be passed to formalize the Brexit delay from March 29 to April 12. While there’s little danger of this not passing, some Tories remain unhappy with it.

Switched Off? | Some projects to develop new power cables between the U.K. and France are on hold because of uncertainties related to Brexit, throwing into question the delivery of infrastructure intended to reduce electricity costs in Britain.

Boris Redux | A bonus second column of the week in the Daily Telegraph from Boris Johnson, who laments the delay to Brexit, saying it has denied the British people a week of national jubilation. 

Rotterdam Bottleneck | Imports of livestock from the U.K. will grind to a halt at the Port of Rotterdam next month should Britain crash out of the European Union, a key port official says, as a vital inspection point isn’t ready. 

Legal Challenge | A non-profit group that says Brexit is a “terrible idea” is trying to bring an 11th-hour lawsuit over the U.K. government’s plans for drug supplies if the country crashes out without a deal. 

On the Markets | Brexit is slipping down the priority list for the money managers outsider the U.K., with investors from Asia to the U.S. increasingly seeing it a a local, not global, event.

Want to keep up with Brexit?

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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