Brexit Bulletin: What Would the Queen Do?
Brexit Bulletin: What Would the Queen Do?
(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Can the next prime minister suspend Parliament? The Queen might have something to say about that.
What’s Happening?
Boris Johnson, the front-runner to become prime minister, has repeatedly refused to rule out suspending Parliament to push through Brexit against its will.
It raises lots of thorny constitutional questions — former Prime Minister John Major has threatened to take Johnson to court if he tries to send lawmakers home to pursue a no-deal divorce without them. But the main obstacle might be the Queen, Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson report. It’s up to the monarch to issue the order, which she traditionally does on the advice of her prime minister.
“The question constitutional experts are all debating is whether the Palace could say ‘No,’” said Catherine Haddon of the Institute for Government. “It’s all something of a gray area in our system.”
One of the long-standing goals both of Buckingham Palace officials and civil servants has been to shield the monarch from political controversy. “The Sovereign does not become publicly involved in the party politics of government,” according to the Cabinet Manual, the official guide to Britain’s unwritten constitution.
Government aides would be likely to urge the prime minister not to put Queen Elizabeth II in a difficult position by asking the question, according to Haddon.
But if she was asked anyway, the Queen would still have options. She could ask him to reconsider. Or she could stall — giving Parliament the time to do what it was trying to do.
Getting involved in politics might not be good for the monarchy’s long-term chances of survival. It could stir republican sentiment and revive dormant questions about its relevance. Add Britain’s muddle-along approach to a constitution to the list of things put in question by Brexit.
Need a flowchart for the weekend? Here’s our latest take on where we are, and where we might be going:
Today’s Must-Reads
- Can the PM actually suspend Parliament? Will it unleash a constitutional crisis? For more, here's our full explainer.
- Boris Johnson was savaged by MPs for his treatment of Kim Darroch, the outgoing British ambassador to the U.S. It shows the difficulties he may face securing a parliamentary majority down the line, writes Kitty Donaldson.
- Brexit means goodbye to Britain as we know it, writes Martin Wolf in the Financial Times.
Brexit in Brief
Next Chancellor? | Treasury Minister Liz Truss — a prominent supporter of Johnson’s bid to become prime minister — said the Conservative Party should make the case for a Thatcher-style, low-tax economic policy to boost growth after Brexit. At a lunch with reporters in Parliament, she also made no secret of her ambition to be chancellor.
Braced for Brexit | The risks of a no-deal Brexit have increased, the Bank of England said, warning that such an outcome could slam the pound, government bonds and house prices. It would bring “significant market volatility and asset-price changes,” along with “material economic disruption.” Most of the threats to cross-border banking services have been mitigated, it said, though more action on the EU side is needed.
Fear Nor Favor | Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt told U.K. diplomats to speak “truth to power,” after the leak of the Darroch memos led him to quit. Johnson’s failure to back the ambassador could be an opportunity for Hunt, the underdog in the Tory leadership race.
Not Done Yet | Fewer than half the Tory members picking the next prime minister have returned their vote slips, The Times reports. That suggests there’s still time for Hunt to pull ahead. Both candidates will be interviewed on the BBC on Friday night.
Rate Cut Call | The Bank of England will cut interest rates in November, analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada said, the first prediction of policy easing this year. They reckon the central bank won’t be able raise rates, even in the event of a smooth Brexit.
On the Markets | The pound traded 0.2 % higher at $1.2545 early on Friday. It’s down about 5% from this time last year — the day Prime Minister Theresa May published her controversial plan for what Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU should be. That prompted Johnson to resign from her Cabinet.
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Iain Rogers
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