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Brexit Bulletin: What’s Happening, Theresa?

Brexit Bulletin: What’s Happening, Theresa?

(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Cross-party talks stall as a crucial week gets under way.

There have been many “crunch” weeks in the Brexit process, but this could actually live up to the name. By close of business on Friday, Brexit will either be happening or it will be delayed—possibly for a long time.

As things stand, the U.K. is due to leave the European Union at 11 p.m. local time on Friday. If nothing changes before then, the sun will set—very quickly—on British membership of the European project.

Many observers don’t expect that to happen. Even Prime Minister Theresa May, in a video posted on Sunday, described Britain’s choice as “leaving the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all.” There was no mention of a no-deal exit. As you may have noticed, while Parliament has failed to approve an exit deal, it has consistently voted against a no-deal exit.

EU leaders will be asked on Wednesday to consider May’s request to delay the Brexit deadline to June 30. EU Council President Donald Tusk is proposing a longer, flexible extension.

The shape of any delay, and any conditions it might come with, are the focus of intense diplomacy. The French are the most openly skeptical. They’re talking tough: The Guardian reported over the weekend that France, Spain and Belgium consider themselves ready for a no-deal Brexit.

But Germany’s Angela Merkel is said to be more amenable, and Ireland—the EU nation most directly impacted by a disorderly exit—remains nervous. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told RTE over the weekend that any nation that vetoes an agreement on Wednesday—in effect forcing a no-deal Brexit—“wouldn't be forgiven for it.” Varadkar meets EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier today.

That doesn’t mean May will have an easy ride in Brussels. She’s under heavy pressure to present a new plan on Wednesday night, and before then, she needs to make progress in talks with the opposition Labour Party. But those talks appeared to be stuck on Sunday night with no further meetings yet planned for today, Lucy Meakin and Tim Ross report.

“Over the last few days people have been asking me what on Earth’s happening with Brexit,” the prime minister said in her video.

By the end of the week she might just be able to give them an answer.

Today’s Must-Reads

  • A Brexit-backer has a change of heart: “Today I have to admit that the Brexit project has gone sour,” journalist Peter Oborne writes at OpenDemocracy. “We need to take a long deep breath. We need to swallow our pride, and think again.”
  • A customs union deal with Labour “cannot, must not and will not happen,” Boris Johnson writes in his weekly Telegraph column. 
  • A softer Brexit would feed a betrayal narrative among euroskeptics for years to come, Therese Raphael writes for Bloomberg Opinion.

Brexit in Brief

Cranking it Up | Insurgent operations including Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party and The Independent Group are gearing up for the possibility of European elections in May, the Financial Times reports. Elections will be required if Brexit hasn’t happened by May 22.

Take Your Pick | There’s confusion in both major parties over the prospect of a new referendum. Eighty Labour MPs signed a letter to Jeremy Corbyn over the weekend calling for a public vote on any new deal. Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry said much the same. But party Chairman Ian Lavery warned Corbyn that backing a new referendum risked splitting Labour. For the Tories, Chancellor Philip Hammond said a referendum must be considered, while Leader of the Commons Andrea Leadsom insisted that the 2016 vote was final.

Grim and Bear It | Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr on Sunday, Leadsom also said a no-deal Brexit at the end of this week would be “not nearly as grim” as some have predicted. A former minister, Chris Heaton-Harris, wrote in the Telegraph that the U.K. is now “officially ready” for a no-deal outcome.

Boris Warchest | Would-be prime minister Boris Johnson has raised £158,000 ($206,000) since the 2017 general election, according to Bloomberg analysis of data from the Electoral Commission and parliamentary registers. That’s more than double the amount raised by his nearest potential rivals in the race to succeed Theresa May as Tory leader.

China Rising | Wealthy Chinese still want U.K. investor visas. Chinese applications for Tier 1 investor visas rose 19 percent to 144 in 2018 from a year earlier, according to data obtained from the Home Office by private equity firm Growthdeck. The number applying has almost doubled since 2016.

Priorities | Jeremy Corbyn didn’t speak about Brexit over the weekend, but the U.K.’s most famous socialist did have time to offer up gardening tips to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, America’s Democratic Party superstar. 

Brexit Bulletin: What’s Happening, Theresa?

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Timothy Coulter "Tim" at tcoulter@bloomberg.net, Lisa Fleisher

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