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Brexit Bulletin: What Brussels Thinks of Boris Johnson

Brexit Bulletin: What Brussels Thinks of Boris Johnson

(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: The EU is coming to terms with Boris Johnson as the U.K.’s next prime minister.

What’s Happening?

The European Union is expecting a Boris Johnson premiership. EU officials are coming to terms with an uncomfortable reality as they watch from Brussels, Berlin and Paris: the man many of them laughed at, and quite a few of them scorned, looks like he’ll soon be moving into Number 10.

In the first round of the ballot yesterday, Johnson — who has vowed to deliver Brexit with or without a deal —  won the support of 114 Tory members of Parliament out of the 313 who voted. That was far ahead of his nearest rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, with 43.

Brexit Bulletin: What Brussels Thinks of Boris Johnson

Johnson’s competitors are holding private talks over joining forces in a bid to stop him running away with it, Tim Ross and Alex Morales report. Two struggling candidates — Home Secretary Sajid Javid and Health Secretary Matt Hancock — met to discuss their options.

The EU is taking a deep breath. There have been some preliminary discussions about how to respond, but nothing is fixed. Much will depend on the level of contact the new leader makes, and who he chooses to be in his team and send over the Channel.

What happens now? Don’t expect the EU to say much on Brexit at a summit of leaders next week. Do expect some hardening of opinion among the other European governments. French President Emmanuel Macron is growing more influential and several other leaders now feel that the U.K. shouldn’t be given more and more time to sort itself out.

Back in April, most other leaders disagreed with Macron that the way to pressure the British Parliament to back the Brexit deal was to offer only a very short extension. They were proved wrong. If Johnson (if it is to be him) goes back on his word and asks for another delay on Oct. 31, he won’t find it as easy as May did.

The EU’s insistence that it won’t renegotiate the Brexit deal is genuine. But of course a new prime minister does bring a fresh start of sorts and, if he plays ball with Brussels, the new man could find himself in receipt of  some sweeteners that the EU wasn’t prepared to give May as it watched her struggles with Parliament.

This won’t include a time-limit on the backstop for the Irish border, EU officials say, even though it’s the main demand from Conservative MPs. But there is a willingness to make the political declaration on future ties far more ambitious, and to set out a more detailed timetable to avoid the backstop being needed. The EU is also willing to revert to its original plan for the mechanism, which would see its customs rules apply to Northern Ireland only, rather than the whole U.K.

May previously said no prime minister could sign up to a plan like that, and it wouldn't be acceptable to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) that props up the Tory government.

Today’s Must-Reads

  • Threatening no deal is an act of self-harm, Confederation of British Industry Director General Carolyn Fairbairn tells Bloomberg
  • The EU had top-secret emergency planning for a chaotic Greek exit from the euro back in 2012, a new book jointly authored by Bloomberg’s Viktoria Dendrinou reveals. What could they have planned for a no-deal Brexit?
  • Johnson may be an “ incompetent liar,” Simon Jenkins writes in The Guardian, but he has one vital political skill — charm.

Brexit in Brief

Pay Up | The U.K.’s future EU relations will be at risk if the incoming prime minister refuses to pay the £39 billion ($49 billion) financial settlement, the European Commission said yesterday. “Mrs. May’s government accepted the payment of that amount,” EU Budget Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said. “We expect them to accept that bill.”

Not Indefinite | The DUP said it could be open to supporting the Irish border backstop if a time limit is added to it. Without a time limit of a “number of years,” the process is heading to no-deal, Jeffrey Donaldson, a key lawmaker representing the DUP, told reporters in Dublin on Thursday. The EU has consistently said that adding a time limit is not possible.

Shaping Up | Mark Sedwill, head of the U.K. civil service, said no-deal Brexit preparations represent “one of the most impressive pieces of cross-government work” he’s experienced. “Those preparations continue and we will be in the best possible shape we can be for whatever happens,” Sedwill told a conference in London.

Shifting Sides | Senior member of Parliament Chuka Umunna announced on Thursday night he has joined the pro-EU Liberal Democrats, who are campaigning for a second referendum.  Umunna was a Labour MP until February, when he left in protest at the official opposition’s unwillingness to oppose Brexit.

Talk To Us | Boris Johnson’s opponents want him to commit to TV debates on Sunday and Tuesday, the Guardian reports. The frontrunner has so far taken only six questions from journalists and has been refusing media requests for interviews, the newspaper said. Johnson is now “in discussions” with broadcasters, according to his spokesman.

Having a Laugh | Between them, the candidates to be the U.K.’s next prime minister are “championing tax policies that are reckless, unjust and ill-informed,” the Economist says in its leader column this week. It describes the contest to find Britain’s next leader as the “Conservative clown show.”

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Iain Rogers

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