Brexit Bulletin: The Virus Strikes Barnier

(Bloomberg) --

What’s Happening? The crisis upending the world has made its mark on Brexit.

With most of Europe in lockdown, the coronavirus has finally struck at the heart of the Brexit negotiations. On Thursday, the European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he had tested positive for Covid-19.

The 69-year-old said he was in good spirits, and both Downing Street and European Council President Charles Michel wished him well.

Barnier’s announcement adds to the squeeze on the already compressed timetable to reach a deal. Trade talks had already been stalled because of the coronavirus and, as Bloomberg’s Ian Wishart reports here, officials aren’t optimistic they can make much progress by video conference. As everyone who’s been working from home this week is finding out,  technology has its limitations.

So Boris Johnson is coming under pressure to delay Britain’s final parting from the bloc due at the end of this year. Will he? In public, the prime minister is dead set against the idea. At a press conference on Wednesday, he dismissed calls to extend the transition period. Both sides have exchanged draft trade agreements, and negotiations are still continuing.

This may all be a pantomime. After all, Johnson vowed in 2019 never to delay Brexit—then did just that. But he has until June to make a decision, and could be hoping the coronavirus will have peaked by then. In the meantime, though, his hand may be forced: A prime minister only has so much bandwidth, and public opinion may not look kindly on a leader distracted by a divisive political project.

There is another possibility. The virus will give Johnson space to quietly pursue what may be his real goal: leaving the EU without a deal. Voters aren’t fussed about extending the transition period in the same way they were about Brexit, as research by Professor Tim Bale suggests. That lack of public interest could be his opportunity to secure an “Australia-style” trading arrangement—or what used to be called a hard Brexit.

A reminder: While the global coronavirus pandemic rolls on the Brexit Bulletin will be published weekly, every Thursday. 

Beyond Brexit

• Yes, young people are falling seriously ill from Covid-19.
• Work from home or struggle in with a fever? The virus is testing Wall Street’s macho culture.
• The Bank of England cut interest rates to 0.1% and resumed bond-buying in its latest virus response.
• Here’s the latest on how the coronavirus is spreading around the world.

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