Brexit Bulletin: The Power of Leave
Brexit Bulletin: The Power of Leave
Days to Brexit: 15
(Bloomberg) --
What’s Happening? Britain was once a major player in the European Union — but not powerful enough to resist Brexit.
Many in Brussels think it started going wrong about 16 years ago. Paradoxically, that’s when U.K. influence in the EU was at a peak. Prime Minister Tony Blair was one of Britain’s most pro-EU leaders and the U.K. had got its way when the bloc opened its doors to 10 former-Communist countries, diluting the domination of France and Germany.
But with its expansion eastward came a timebomb. From then until the Brexit referendum in 2016 the number of non-British EU citizens in the U.K. increased from 1.5 million to 3.5 million. Much of this immigration happened in towns that overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU when voters got the chance.
But a pivotal moment in the U.K. relationship came on Dec. 9, 2011. The future of the euro hung in the balance and at a late-night Brussels summit, Prime Minister David Cameron vetoed an emergency treaty to safeguard the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders were furious, and relations remain soured to this day.
Could the EU have done more to keep Britain in the club? In a 2013 speech at Bloomberg’s London headquarters, Cameron called for wide-ranging reform of the EU to allow some countries to have a far looser relationship than others. But that never happened.
There are regrets within the EU: Merkel used an interview with the Financial Times today to call Brexit “a wake up call.” And Ivan Rogers, who resigned as Britain’s ambassador to the EU in 2017, believes the bloc is still blighted by “complacency, fatigue, and strategic myopia” when it comes to the U.K.
There’s no one reason why the EU lost the U.K. What’s clear is that at the end of this month, 1,317 days after the 2016 referendum, the uneasy union will come to an end.
Beyond Brexit
- Nobody makes money like Leon Black, the most feared man in the most aggressive realm of finance.
- A billionaire has let his 17-bedroom island mansion rot, according to a bank suing him for unpaid debts.
- The second-biggest diamond ever found will be cut, polished and turned a collection of Louis Vuitton jewelry.
Brexit in Brief
Equivalence | London’s battle to remain a global financial hub is in European hands. The EU will consider about 40 so-called “equivalence” decisions this year, determining how much equity, fixed-income and other investment banking business can remain in London and still serve EU clients. The bloc’s politicians are under no obligation to maintain close ties with the U.K.’s finance industry.
‘Absolute Darwinism’ | Boris Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, is a disheveled contrarian with a radical agenda. In the Financial Times, George Parker asks whether he can stay in Downing Street to deliver on his plans.
Worst of the Worst | The cost of the U.K.’s productivity crisis is “already multiples of even the worst-case Brexit scenario,” according to Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane. Output per hour around is around 22% lower today than it would have been had it continued to grow as it did in the years before the financial crisis.
Trouble for the Taoiseach | Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar suffered a difficult start to his re-election bid, with one early projection suggesting his party faces defeat in next month’s general election and little sign of his Brexit-themed election pitch cutting through.
Unsettled | An estimated 900,000 EU citizens in the U.K. have yet to apply for settled status, which most will need to remain in the country long-term after Brexit, the Guardian reports.
Down With the Flags | The British flag flying outside the European Parliament in Brussels will be taken down and placed in a museum on Jan. 31, the Telegraph’s James Crisp reports.
Big Ben Bong Update | Pro-Brexit campaign group StandUp4Brexit has launched a crowdfunding campaign to raise an estimated £500,000 ($653,450) to pay for Big Ben to bong at 11 p.m. on Jan. 31. So far it’s almost one-fifth of the way there. BBC News has an explanation of why the bongs would cost so much.
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Chris Kay
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