Brexit Bulletin: Shadow Boxing

(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Opponents are lining up to stop Johnson suspending Parliament. But does he even plan to?

What’s Happening?

The drive to stop the next prime minister from suspending Parliament is gaining momentum. 

Gina Miller, a pro-European Union campaigner who has already shaped the course of Brexit with legal action, says she is poised to take the government to court if Boris Johnson tries to send lawmakers home so that he can push through a messy no-deal divorce against their will.

She’s putting the legal team she used the last time back together to possibly fight Johnson. While the front-runner to become prime minister later this month has said he doesn’t want to shut down the legislature to force through a no-deal split, he has persistently refused to rule it out as an option.

“It would be an abuse of his powers to close Parliament” and “limit the voice of the representatives that we all elect,” Miller told Sky. Her team would be “actively defending Parliamentary sovereignty, because it is the cornerstone of our constitution,” she said.

Former Prime Minister John Major has already said he would take the government to court if Johnson took the unusual and highly controversial measure, and other lawmakers have threatened to organize sit-ins as a response. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is planning to become a rowdy backbench member of Parliament fighting no-deal, and Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she might join him.

As Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton reported last week, the Queen might have something to say too. 

But before the lawyers start cashing in, it’s worth listening closely to Johnson’s own discourse on this. Once again on Friday he hinted that his “do or die” deadline to take the U.K. out of the bloc on Oct. 31 might be prone to slippage.

“It would be absolutely insane, now, to say that yet again we have a, you know, a phony deadline,” he told the BBC. He’s said before that it would be unwise to signal to his negotiating partners “at this stage” that he was up for another delay.  

It could turn out to be little more than shadow boxing on both sides.

Today’s Must-Reads

• Pound’s record losing run ratchets up costs of European holidays.
• Ursula von der Leyen is pushing for last-minute votes among left-leaning factions of the European Parliament to win a secret ballot on Tuesday for the top EU job.
• Boris Johnson may enjoy a brief bounce but he will soon come up against a deeply divided country, writes Alex Massie in the Times.

Brexit in Brief

U.S. Move | Johnson will make a trip to the U.S. within two months of taking office, the Times reports. He wants to get a limited trade deal in one area of goods in time for the Brexit deadline of Oct. 31, and would aim to sketch out the broad outline of a full deal with President Donald Trump, the Times said. The U.K can’t strike new trade deals until it has left the bloc. 

Open Minded | The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which props up the government in London, is willing to explore ideas to avoid the need for border checks after Brexit, the Sunday Times reports, citing lawmaker Jeffrey Donaldson. DUP is crucial to getting any revised Brexit deal through Parliament.

Changing Her Mind | Amber Rudd, an outspoken critic of no-deal, said on Sunday she would no longer “lie down in front of the bulldozers” to prevent it. She still thinks it’s a bad outcome, but now reckons it’s a necessary negotiating tool, she told the BBC. Johnson has said he won’t allow anyone in his Cabinet who doesn't sign up to no-deal. 

Trade School | The U.K. is launching a training scheme for international trade negotiators to prepare for life after Brexit. If offers an annual salary of about £30,000 and you don't need a degree or previous government experience.

Sweating the Details | Johnson admitted that he did not know the full details of an international trade rule that he is proposing as a viable plan B for Brexit. Johnson was grilled in a BBC interview about a measure – known as GATT Article 24 – that he argues could help Britain’s economy cope if the country leaves without a deal. "How would you handle paragraph 5C?" interviewer Andrew Neil asked. Johnson responded: "I would confide entirely in paragraph 5B." "Do you know what’s in 5C?" the interviewer asked. Johnson paused, before replying: "No."

Won’t Commit | Underdog Jeremy Hunt refused to commit to leaving the bloc on Oct. 31, saying it wasn’t realistic to do so.  Asked in an interview on Friday night it the U.K. would leave by Christmas, he said “I would expect so, yes.” He said: “Prime ministers should only make promises they know they can deliver,” and noted that Parliament could stand in his way.

Nearing the Bottom? | London house prices fell less than usual this month as sellers held back, a sign that the market may be stabilizing, according to Rightmove.

On the Markets | The pound edged lower to $1.2566. It’s lost 5% in a year. 

And Finally | Arch-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg was at Lord’s on Sunday to watch England’s dramatic cricket World Cup final win over New Zealand. Tweeting after the surprise victory, Rees-Mogg said “we didn’t need Europe to win.” Of course, as many pointed out almost immediately, England’s captain, Eoin Morgan, is Irish. 

Want to keep up with Brexit?

You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter and join our Facebook group, Brexit Decoded. 

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Neil Callanan at ncallanan@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.