Brexit Bulletin: Here We Go Again

(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Theresa May has a new strategy to get her Brexit deal through but once again it relies on the opposition. 

What’s Happening?

Prime Minister Theresa May is considering a new tactic to get her Brexit deal through. As usual, it’s a gamble.

Lawmakers have already rejected her plan three times so May is getting creative. She’s going to try and get the legislation through the back door, by calling a vote on the pages and pages of legal documents around the deal, with a promise lawmakers will be able to propose amendments to it.

The twist in strategy comes as her party is desperate to avoid the elections for the European Parliament next month, given that those are for EU members. Talks with the opposition Labour party on a Brexit consensus, meanwhile, are failing to progress. May’s decision will depend on what happens in the next few days, though yet again she would be relying on votes from Labour for the plan to work. We know how well that went last time. 

Brexit Bulletin: Here We Go Again

She has a new incentive to get a deal through as fast as possible: President Donald Trump will make a state visit on June 3-5, Buckingham Palace announced Tuesday. The prime minister and the president are expected to discuss a  U.S.-U.K. trade deal, a task that would be greatly simplified if Britain had already agreed on an exit plan.

Today’s Must-Reads

  • Paris is going all-out for London’s Brexit exiles, with hairdressers and butchers brushing up their English-language skills to serve customers fleeing Britain. 
  • British and EU regulators need a “big debate” over post-Brexit oversight given that the U.K. takes a different view on what rules are needed, U.K. Financial Conduct Authority Chief Executive Officer Andrew Bailey said Tuesday.
  • Iconic British carmaker Jaguar Land Rover is counting on the relative calm of the U.S. to shore up sales as the Brexit turmoil and plummeting China revenue pressure the brand.

Brexit in Brief

Cast of Characters | The U.K.’s new political parties have announced their candidate lists for next month’s European parliamentary election. Change UK’s include Brexiteer and former London mayor Boris Johnson’s sister, Rachel Johnson, and former BBC North America correspondent Gavin Esler, while the Brexit Party is fielding candidates including charity CEO Matthew Patten. 

Voting Intentions | Here’s why May’s Conservatives may not be eager to fight the EU elections: Labour would win the ballot and the Brexit Party is set to come second, according to a survey from The U.K. in a Changing Europe. In other news for May, Brexiteer Boris Johnson is seen as her most likely successor by the group of more than 100 academics polled. 

Window of Opportunity| U.K. companies such as Tesco and bookmaker William Hill are back with new debt sales as they seek to take advantage of the brief window of calm on a Brexit extension. More deals from British businesses are in the works as short-term market fears ease, according to bankers.

On the Markets | The pound’s current calm rests on May staying in power, according to Nomura International Plc. The currency could fall as much as 3 percent if she is ousted, to $1.26 from around $1.30 currently. Hedge funds, meanwhile, have been raising their bullish bets on sterling.

Brexit Bulletin: Here We Go Again

Bringing in the Bacon | The promised Brexit dividend may finally have arrived, and it’s pork: U.K. sausage buyers have been enjoying a price discount thanks to Brexit stockpiling by British meat processors ahead of the original March 29 deadline. Coca-Cola Co. also said in its latest earnings that it got a boost from Brexit stockpiling. 

Want to keep up with Brexit?

You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter and join our Facebook group, Brexit Decoded

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.