Brexit Bulletin: ‘Chest-Beating Men’

(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Tory candidates reckon they can succeed where Theresa May failed. Why?

What’s Happening?

Tory leadership candidates are engaging in “Trumpian machismo” by promising to succeed in Brexit talks where Theresa May failed. That’s the assessment of one of their rivals, an outsider whose chances of success are worse than slim.

Sam Gyimah, who wants a second referendum, thinks there’s been too much focus on May’s “personal failings” and not enough on the real constraints of the negotiations. Candidates are ignoring the complexities of the Irish border, for example. Many of his rivals are promising to go back to Brussels and reopen the deal that the European Union has repeatedly said is closed. 

“You’ve got chest-beating men saying they could do what Theresa May failed to do,” Gyimah told Bloomberg’s Rob Hutton in an interview. “They’re saying they could go and renegotiate in a Trump way and get a better deal.”

What those candidates would do if the chest-beating renegotiation fails is now becoming the focus of the contest. One of the most puzzling questions for citizens and investors alike is whether a prime minister could pursue a no-deal exit even though Parliament overwhelmingly opposes it. 

At hustings last night, former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab confirmed himself as the most hardline of the bunch. He’s promising a no-deal exit on Oct. 31 and could sideline Parliament if necessary to deliver it.

His suggestion that Parliament could essentially be suspended — known as prorogation — prompted outrage among moderates. It’s hard to see how such a move wouldn’t cause a full-on constitutional crisis, followed by a vote of no-confidence as soon as Parliament reconvened amid the ensuing chaos.  A no-deal leader might prove a short-lived prime minister.

Today’s Must-Reads

• Lost track of where everyone stands on Brexit? Alex Morales and Rob Hutton have all the info how the rivals running for PM reckon they can fix Brexit
• Trump told Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar that Ireland has nothing to fear from Brexit and the border with Northern Ireland will be “just fine”
• Markets aren’t properly pricing in the risk of a no-deal Brexit, argues Bloomberg’s John Authers.

Brexit in Brief

Boris Might Not Work | Boris Johnson’s pitch to Conservative MPs is that he has the kind of public appeal that the party needs to win. But Rob Hayward, a member of the House of Lords who crunches polling data and voter statistics, says voters have largely made their minds up about him, and too many don’t trust him. “What’s striking about Boris in particular is that on a thing like ‘trustworthy,’ he comes out very badly,” he said.

Gove the Moderate | Pro-Brexit Environment Secretary Michael Gove confirmed that he would be prepared to extend the deadline beyond Oct. 31 in order to get the right deal. 

Will She Run? | Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt won’t say yet whether she’ll join the race. But she has a plan for Brexit if she were to win and says she’s “optimistic” that the EU would be open to a renegotiation. She has until Monday to decide. Meanwhile Steve Baker, one of the Conservative Party’s leading Euroskeptics, has a plan for a “clean, managed Brexit” and said he would run if colleagues asked him. “If they ask me to do it and am I willing, my answer will be ‘You bet.”’

Hunt’s Pitch | Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is presenting himself as the pro-business candidate whose current job makes him well-placed to renegotiate Brexit. He’s not “Theresa in trousers,” he told the hustings on Wednesday. 

Labour’s Dilemma | The Labour Party won’t be able to win a majority in a general election unless it backs a second referendum, according to analysis of polling data published in the Independent newspaper and commissioned by pro-EU groups.

Another Test | There’s a by-election in Peterborough today and it might be the Brexit Party’s to lose. 

Ford Factory | Ford Motor Co. is set to announce the closure of an engine factory in the U.K. on Thursday, as it continues to overhaul its money-losing European operations in an $11 billion global restructuring.

On the Markets | The pound was almost unchanged at $1.2688 early on Thursday. Traders are trying to figure out whether no-deal can actually happen or not.

Want to keep up with Brexit?

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--With assistance from Robert Hutton.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anne Pollak at apollak@bloomberg.net, Adam Blenford

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