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Brexit Bulletin: ‘Crazy Rush’

Brexit Bulletin: ‘Crazy Rush’

Days to Brexit: 24

(Bloomberg) --

What’s Happening? British business pleads to be heard in the upcoming trade talks with the European Union.

After feeling ignored throughout the Brexit debate, British business is hoping for a change in fortunes in 2020. With the U.K. soon to start negotiations with the EU on their future relationship, executives are hoping Prime Minister Boris Johnson will heed their concerns.

They have several things to worry about. The EU has never struck a comprehensive free-trade agreement deal with another country in less than a year, as the Brexit timetable dictates. With time a key factor, any deal is likely to be a “bare-bones” agreement, covering goods only and creating extra costs on doing business with the U.K.’s biggest trading partner.

“This is going to be a crazy rush,” said Anna Jerzewska, an independent customs expert and consultant for the British Chambers of Commerce. “I don’t think people understand how much we need to do in such a short period of time.”

The preferred outcome for business would be for Johnson to pivot towards a high-alignment, high-access deal with the EU and extend the Brexit transition period. However, as Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman writes in the Guardian, both are unlikely. Johnson’s administration sees regulatory divergence as a major prize of Brexit and hopes the tight deadline for talks will concentrate minds in Brussels, Rahman argues.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be in London tomorrow. Before meeting Johnson with the EU’s Brexit chief Michel Barnier on Wednesday, she will speak at the London School of Economics. According to the Guardian she is likely to talk up the prospects of the coming negotiations.

EU leaders hope they can enter a more collaborative phase with the British that avoids the clashes of the last three years, the report said. As business is making clear, they aren’t the only ones.

Beyond Brexit

  • Did you read that Finland’s 34-year-old prime minister is proposing a four-day working week? Well, the story wasn’t true — and Sanna Marin’s own government has come out swinging.
  • The European Union has a growing trade surplus... with itself. A German study says the anomaly could indicate VAT fraud of more than 60 billion euros ($67 billion.)
  • The Boris bounce was more of a Christmas turkey, and big U.K. food retailers didn’t benefit from a post-election shopping splurge, Andrea Felsted writes for Bloomberg Opinion.

This week, we’re bringing you a selection of the best and most popular stories from beyond the world of Brexit.

Brexit in Brief

Odey-r | Brexit-backing hedge fund boss Crispin Odey saw his main investment vehicle end 2019 down 10.1%. Odey, who was accused of seeking to profit in the face of a no-deal Brexit, now needs to generate a 111% return just to make up for the losses incurred by his investors over the last five years.

Renewal Notice | The first post-Brexit U.K. budget will be unveiled on March 11, Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid said. The budget is expected to include provision for new borrowing that would generate funds for investment in infrastructure projects.

She’s Running | Rebecca Long-Bailey formally entered the nascent Labour leadership contest with an avowedly socialist appeal to unite “all of Labour’s heartlands.” There was no mention of Brexit in her opening pitch, though she later criticized the party’s obsession with “parliamentary process” in the run-up to the recent election defeat. Read about all the Labour leadership candidates here.

Not Going to Happen | Australia won’t strike a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.K. that includes visa-free travel and work arrangements, the country’s trade minister told the Sydney Morning Herald. Simon Birmingham said a deal encompassing “full and unfettered free movement” was unlikely to be on the table.

Nerd Army | Johnson aide Dominic Cummings made headlines with his blog post last week seeking “weirdos” to work in the heart of government. It could go wrong, says science writer Tom Chivers, who frequents the same corners of the internet as Cummings — but, he says, there are reasons to believe it could make a difference.

Want to keep up with Brexit?

You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Guy Collins

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