Brazil's High-Flying Stocks May Gain Altitude as Rates Decline

(Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks have extended their year-to-date gain to about 20% on renewed optimism that Latin America’s largest economy will finally overhaul its heavily indebted social security system. But the rally that has pushed the market to record highs still may have some juice left.

The benchmark Ibovespa index may climb 11% from current levels to about 115,000 by the end of 2019, according to the average forecast of 10 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Their targets range from 105,000 to 123,000, implying an increase of as much as 18%. That would mark the fourth year of double-digit gains for Brazilian stocks.

Reforming pensions should allow Brazil’s central bank to reduce the benchmark interest rate below the current, historically low 6.5%, pushing more funds into the local stock market, strategists say. While the domestic swap rates curve is pricing in an easing cycle of 108 basis point until the end of the year, some of the nation’s fund managers and economists see room for the Selic rate to reach 5%.

“A strong fiscal anchor will likely open room for deeper interest rate cuts,” Bradesco BBI analysts led by Andre Carvalho wrote in a July 10 report, raising their target for the Ibovespa to 122,000 from 116,000. “Low interest rates should help boost the capital markets and M&A activities, as well as reduce financial expenses and increase the attractiveness of bond-like stocks,” Carvalho said.

Bank of America has reiterated its overweight rating for Brazilian stocks in its Latin American portfolio, seeing the Ibovespa at 120,000 in the end of this year. “Flows into equities should keep supporting the market,” BofA’s Latin America equity strategist David Beker wrote in a note.

Passing pension reform is also expected to unlock a long-awaited rebound in Brazil’s economy. Since the beginning of the year, economists have been lowering their estimates for gross domestic product in 2019, as doubts about the country’s fiscal outlook have kept investments on hold.

Here’s a list of strategists’ top picks in Brazil:

Bradesco BBI

• Banco do Brasil SA, Itau Unibanco Holding SA, B3 SA, CVC Brasil Operadora e Agencia de Viagens SA, Lojas Renner SA, Energisa SA, Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo, Vale SA, Gerdau SA and Petroleo Brasileiro SA

BTG Pactual

• Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Localiza Rent a Car SA, Banco Bradesco SA, Lojas Renner SA, Rumo SA, Cosan SA, Oi SA, Ambev SA, JBS S and Totvs SA

Itau BBA

• Banco do Brasil SA, Banco Bradesco SA, Cyrela Brazil Realty SA, Cia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais, Kroton Educacional SA, Rumo SA, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliarios SA, Vale SA and Azul SA

JPMorgan

• Banco Bradesco SA, IRB Brasil Resseguros, Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao, Vale SA, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Rumo SA, Randon SA and Cyrela Brazil Realty SA

Safra

• Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Banco Bradesco SA, Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul SA, Banco do Brasil SA, B3 SA, Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao, Localiza Rent a Car SA, Vale SA, Bradespar SA, Cia Siderurgica Nacional SA, Petrobras Distribuidora SA, Telefonica Brasil SA, Rumo SA, Energisa SA and EZ Tec Empreendimentos e Participacoes SA

To contact the reporter on this story: Vinícius Andrade in São Paulo at vandrade3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at bolesen3@bloomberg.net, Scott Schnipper, Richard Richtmyer

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