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BOE’s Big Advantage, German Tourists, China’s Recovery: Eco Day

BOE’s Big Advantage, German Tourists, China’s Recovery : Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • The Bank of England has one big advantage when it comes to the contentious topic of negative interest rates: it’s no pioneer
  • Retail outlets in England selling non-essential items are opening Monday for the first time since March, as the government eases restrictions put in place to curb the coronavirus. Also in the U.K., house prices increased as lockdown measures were relaxed, Rightmove Plc said
  • Holidaymakers from Germany alone -- Europe’s most populous country, and one of its most prosperous -- could be especially important this summer, with U.K. travelers potentially deterred from trips by having to quarantine once they return home. Last year, Germans spent almost 70 billion euros ($79 billion) on vacations
  • China’s economy continued to inch out of the coronavirus slump in May, though a reliance on industry amid sluggish consumer demand underlines the fragility of the recovery as further infections appear
  • Global trade data in the Covid-19 era has been generally abysmal, but look a little closer and the electronics sector that fires Asia’s trade engines could be headed for a pretty good year
  • The speed and intensity of the virus recession has rendered many traditional economic indicators out of date before they are published. To provide a timelier read on the depth of the downturn, and early indicators on the recovery, Bloomberg Economics has pulled together a number of high frequency, alternative, and market measures
  • The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economists
  • In terms of economic relations, the U.S. and China have been coupling up for decades to become the biggest trading partners on the planet from 2014. They are now bound for a seismic “decoupling”
  • The U.S. economy is recovering from the “act of nature” that coronavirus created, said White House economic director Larry Kudlow, rejecting a more cautious view of the outlook given last week by Fed chief Jerome Powell. Meantime, Fed Dallas chief Robert Kaplan says the jobless rate will remain elevated through year’s end
  • In Asia, The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its main policy levers untouched Tuesday; total employment in Singapore, excluding foreign domestic workers, fell by a record 25,600 in the first quarter

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