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Biden’s Chances of Winning Hit Record 87.1%: FiveThirtyEight
Biden’s Chances of Winning Hit Record 87.1%: FiveThirtyEight
16 Oct 2020, 08:48 PM IST 
(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to a record high 87.1%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 86.7% on Oct. 14. He is predicted to win 350 of 538 electoral votes.
- The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 12.6%, down from 13.0% on Oct. 14
- According to the Oct. 16 run of the model, Trump had a 4.5% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 95.5%
- The national polling average for Trump reached 41.9% on Oct. 16 compared with 42.0% on Oct. 14
- Biden’s national polling average reached 52.2% on Oct. 16 compared with 52.1% on Oct. 14
- These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Oct. 16:
| State | Electoral Votes | 2016 Winner | Trump Poll Avg | Biden Poll Avg | Trump Win Chance | Biden Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | 56.5% | 38.1% | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump | 50.0% | 44.7% | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump | 45.4% | 48.6% | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | 54.4% | 39.4% | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| California | 55 | Clinton | 31.5% | 61.4% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Colorado | 9 | Clinton | 40.2% | 52.9% | 5.4% | 94.6% |
| Connecticut | 7 | Clinton | 33.8% | 56.8% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Delaware | 3 | Clinton | 33.4% | 58.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Clinton | 9.1% | 86.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Florida | 29 | Trump | 45.0% | 48.8% | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump | 46.7% | 47.5% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Hawaii | 4 | Clinton | 31.4% | 60.8% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | 57.9% | 36.3% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Illinois | 20 | Clinton | 38.3% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | 51.5% | 40.7% | 93.9% | 6.1% |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump | 47.6% | 47.4% | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | 50.5% | 42.3% | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | 56.7% | 37.9% | 98.5% | 1.5% |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | 53.8% | 38.4% | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| Maine | 4 | Clinton | 39.5% | 53.7% | 10.2% | 89.8% |
| Maryland | 10 | Clinton | 30.7% | 62.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Clinton | 28.4% | 65.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Michigan | 16 | Trump | 42.8% | 50.3% | 9.1% | 90.9% |
| Minnesota | 10 | Clinton | 41.9% | 50.1% | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | 54.0% | 39.2% | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | 51.2% | 44.5% | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| Montana | 3 | Trump | 52.2% | 43.5% | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump | 51.1% | 43.1% | 98.8% | 1.2% |
| Nevada | 6 | Clinton | 43.5% | 49.0% | 13.0% | 87.0% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Clinton | 42.5% | 53.5% | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| New Jersey | 14 | Clinton | 36.7% | 55.1% | 1.5% | 98.5% |
| New Mexico | 5 | Clinton | 40.7% | 52.8% | 2.8% | 97.2% |
| New York | 29 | Clinton | 31.9% | 60.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| North Carolina | 15 | Trump | 46.0% | 48.7% | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | 57.4% | 36.2% | 99.1% | 0.9% |
| Ohio | 18 | Trump | 47.2% | 46.7% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | 57.8% | 35.3% | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| Oregon | 7 | Clinton | 37.9% | 56.1% | 2.7% | 97.3% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Trump | 44.0% | 50.4% | 12.6% | 87.5% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Clinton | 33.0% | 62.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump | 50.9% | 43.0% | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump | 54.5% | 39.5% | 96.6% | 3.4% |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | 54.7% | 39.6% | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Texas | 38 | Trump | 48.7% | 46.6% | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| Utah | 6 | Trump | 51.4% | 38.5% | 95.9% | 4.1% |
| Vermont | 3 | Clinton | 30.1% | 62.2% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| Virginia | 13 | Clinton | 40.4% | 52.8% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| Washington | 12 | Clinton | 34.5% | 58.1% | 0.7% | 99.3% |
| West Virginia | 5 | Trump | 58.9% | 35.6% | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Trump | 43.3% | 50.6% | 12.1% | 87.9% |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump | 64.7% | 30.4% | 99.8% | 0.2% |
- Major polls added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:
| Pollster | Sponsors | State or Federal | Start Date | End Date | Population | Sample Size | Trump % | Biden % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | Crooked Media | Indivisible | Iowa | 10/8/20 | 10/11/20 | Likely voters | 822 | 48.0 | 47.0 |
| Emerson College | NewsNation | North Carolina | 10/13/20 | 10/14/20 | Likely voters | 721 | 49.2 | 49.2 |
| Marist College | NPR | PBS NewsHour | Federal | 10/8/20 | 10/13/20 | Likely voters | 896 | 43.0 | 54.0 |
| Marist College | NPR | PBS NewsHour | Federal | 10/8/20 | 10/13/20 | Registered voters | 1,199 | 42.0 | 54.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | NA | Florida | 10/8/20 | 10/12/20 | Likely voters | 625 | 45.0 | 48.0 |
| Monmouth University | NA | Arizona | 10/9/20 | 10/13/20 | Likely voters | 502 | 45.5 | 50.0 |
| Monmouth University | NA | Arizona | 10/9/20 | 10/13/20 | Registered voters | 502 | 44.0 | 50.0 |
| Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | Center for American Greatness | Pennsylvania | 10/12/20 | 10/13/20 | Likely voters | 400 | 42.6 | 45.8 |
| Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | NA | South Carolina | 10/9/20 | 10/15/20 | Likely voters | 605 | 49.0 | 41.0 |
NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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