Biden’s Chances of Winning Drop to 89.2%: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College fell to 89.2%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 90% on Nov. 2. He is predicted to win 350 of 538 electoral votes.

  • The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 10.4%, up from 9.6% on Nov. 2
  • According to the Nov. 3 run of the model, Trump had a 2.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 97.4%
  • The national polling average for Trump reached 43.4% on Nov. 3, unchanged from Nov. 2
  • Biden’s national polling average reached 51.8% on Nov. 3, the same as on Nov. 2
  • These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Nov. 3:
StateElectoral Votes2016 WinnerTrump Poll AvgBiden Poll AvgTrump Win ChanceBiden Win Chance
Alabama9Trump57.4%37.8%98.4%1.6%
Alaska3Trump51.0%43.5%85.0%14.9%
Arizona11Trump46.1%48.7%32.0%68.0%
Arkansas6Trump58.4%36.2%99.0%1.0%
California55Clinton32.3%61.6%0.1%99.9%
Colorado9Clinton41.0%53.6%3.2%96.8%
Connecticut7Clinton32.0%58.4%0.1%99.9%
Delaware3Clinton34.1%58.7%0.0%100.0%
District of Columbia3Clinton5.6%90.7%0.0%100.0%
Florida29Trump46.7%49.1%30.9%69.1%
Georgia16Trump47.3%48.6%41.8%58.2%
Hawaii4Clinton29.2%64.3%0.6%99.4%
Idaho4Trump56.2%38.3%99.4%0.6%
Illinois20Clinton39.0%55.0%0.1%99.9%
Indiana11Trump52.8%42.0%96.4%3.6%
Iowa6Trump47.6%46.3%60.1%39.9%
Kansas6Trump53.8%40.9%98.6%1.4%
Kentucky8Trump55.5%39.7%98.6%1.4%
Louisiana8Trump57.5%37.0%97.1%2.9%
Maine4Clinton40.3%53.3%9.9%90.1%
Maryland10Clinton31.6%63.0%0.0%100.0%
Massachusetts11Clinton28.6%64.4%0.1%99.9%
Michigan16Trump43.2%51.2%5.3%94.7%
Minnesota10Clinton42.6%51.9%4.2%95.8%
Mississippi6Trump55.4%39.5%91.5%8.5%
Missouri10Trump51.5%43.6%93.6%6.4%
Montana3Trump49.7%45.3%82.0%18.0%
Nebraska5Trump51.7%42.4%99.4%0.6%
Nevada6Clinton44.3%49.6%12.2%87.8%
New Hampshire4Clinton42.8%53.9%10.9%89.1%
New Jersey14Clinton37.9%58.4%0.8%99.2%
New Mexico5Clinton41.8%53.8%2.2%97.8%
New York29Clinton32.8%62.2%0.0%100.0%
North Carolina15Trump47.1%48.9%36.1%63.9%
North Dakota3Trump55.6%38.6%97.6%2.4%
Ohio18Trump47.5%46.8%54.7%45.3%
Oklahoma7Trump58.8%36.1%99.4%0.6%
Oregon7Clinton37.0%58.6%1.8%98.2%
Pennsylvania20Trump45.6%50.2%15.7%84.3%
Rhode Island4Clinton31.8%62.9%0.1%99.9%
South Carolina9Trump51.6%44.5%90.0%10.0%
South Dakota3Trump54.2%39.0%94.8%5.2%
Tennessee11Trump54.9%41.0%96.8%3.2%
Texas38Trump48.6%47.5%61.8%38.2%
Utah6Trump51.6%42.1%95.4%4.6%
Vermont3Clinton27.3%66.4%0.4%99.6%
Virginia13Clinton41.8%53.7%1.0%99.0%
Washington12Clinton36.3%59.3%0.8%99.2%
West Virginia5Trump61.9%33.5%99.3%0.7%
Wisconsin10Trump43.7%52.1%5.6%94.4%
Wyoming3Trump62.0%30.8%99.8%0.2%
  • Major polls added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:
PollsterSponsorsState or FederalStart DateEnd DatePopulationSample SizeTrump %Biden %
Data for ProgressNAFlorida10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters1,20248.051.0
Data for ProgressNAGeorgia10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters1,03648.050.0
Data for ProgressNAIowa10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters95149.047.0
Data for ProgressNAKansas10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters1,12155.041.0
Data for ProgressNAMinnesota10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters1,25943.051.0
Data for ProgressNAMississippi10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters56255.041.0
Data for ProgressNANevada10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters1,44244.051.0
Data for ProgressNAPennsylvania10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters1,41745.052.0
Data for ProgressNASouth Carolina10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters88053.044.0
IpsosReutersFederal10/31/2011/2/201,33346.051.0
IpsosReutersFederal10/31/2011/2/20Likely voters91445.052.0
IpsosReutersFederal10/31/2011/2/20Registered voters1,14645.052.0
IpsosReutersFlorida10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters67046.050.0
IpsosReutersNorth Carolina10/27/2011/1/20Likely voters70748.049.0
Landmark CommunicationsWSB-TVGeorgia11/1/2011/1/20Likely voters50050.146.0
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantageFOX35 OrlandoFlorida11/1/2011/2/20Likely voters40048.247.0
YouGovEconomistFederal10/31/2011/2/20Likely voters1,36343.053.0
YouGovEconomistFederal10/31/2011/2/20Registered voters1,50040.049.0

NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast.

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