Biden Has 70.5% Chance of Winning Election: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden stands a 70.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 4 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

  • The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 28.9%
  • According to the Sept. 4 run of the model, Trump had a 16.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 83.4%
  • The national polling average for Trump reached 42.8% on Sept. 4. It is unchanged from Sept. 3
  • Biden’s national polling average reached 50.4% on Sept. 4 compared with 50.3% on Sept. 3
  • These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 4:
    StateElectoral Votes2016 WinnerTrump Poll AvgBiden Poll AvgTrump Win ChanceBiden Win Chance
    Alabama9Trump57.4%38.4%97.9%2.1%
    Alaska3Trump49.6%45.0%81.3%18.7%
    Arizona11Trump43.7%48.9%39.9%60.1%
    Arkansas6Trump47.0%45.0%93.7%6.3%
    California55Clinton30.8%61.4%0.2%99.8%
    Colorado9Clinton40.1%52.3%14.4%85.6%
    Connecticut7Clinton34.3%53.8%2.1%97.9%
    Delaware3Clinton38.4%57.3%0.3%99.7%
    District of Columbia3Clinton0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
    Florida29Trump45.2%48.8%41.0%59.0%
    Georgia16Trump46.6%45.7%68.8%31.2%
    Hawaii4Clinton30.3%56.8%1.3%98.7%
    Idaho4Trump0.0%0.0%99.4%0.6%
    Illinois20Clinton0.0%0.0%0.6%99.4%
    Indiana11Trump53.0%38.4%95.4%4.6%
    Iowa6Trump46.1%45.1%69.4%30.6%
    Kansas6Trump50.7%41.0%92.9%7.1%
    Kentucky8Trump55.1%39.7%97.7%2.3%
    Louisiana8Trump53.2%39.3%92.4%7.6%
    Maine4Clinton40.0%50.7%22.4%77.6%
    Maryland10Clinton35.1%59.6%0.2%99.8%
    Massachusetts11Clinton29.5%63.6%0.2%99.8%
    Michigan16Trump42.5%49.6%18.0%82.0%
    Minnesota10Clinton43.8%50.3%24.5%75.5%
    Mississippi6Trump53.6%40.9%87.7%12.3%
    Missouri10Trump49.6%43.5%90.1%9.9%
    Montana3Trump51.4%43.2%88.4%11.6%
    Nebraska5Trump0.0%0.0%98.6%1.4%
    Nevada6Clinton41.1%46.3%22.1%77.9%
    New Hampshire4Clinton43.2%50.8%28.7%71.3%
    New Jersey14Clinton35.6%54.1%3.8%96.2%
    New Mexico5Clinton42.6%53.3%8.4%91.6%
    New York29Clinton33.2%59.7%0.2%99.8%
    North Carolina15Trump46.7%48.7%48.4%51.6%
    North Dakota3Trump55.9%38.0%98.8%1.2%
    Ohio18Trump47.2%46.0%61.2%38.8%
    Oklahoma7Trump58.4%34.7%99.3%0.7%
    Oregon7Clinton0.0%0.0%8.6%91.4%
    Pennsylvania20Trump45.1%49.5%31.5%68.5%
    Rhode Island4Clinton0.0%0.0%1.5%98.5%
    South Carolina9Trump49.6%43.5%87.8%12.2%
    South Dakota3Trump0.0%0.0%96.6%3.4%
    Tennessee11Trump53.5%40.1%95.4%4.6%
    Texas38Trump47.1%46.2%74.3%25.7%
    Utah6Trump48.8%36.2%95.4%4.6%
    Vermont3Clinton0.0%0.0%0.8%99.2%
    Virginia13Clinton40.4%51.1%6.6%93.4%
    Washington12Clinton33.3%58.8%1.3%98.7%
    West Virginia5Trump64.6%32.4%99.3%0.7%
    Wisconsin10Trump42.7%50.3%25.7%74.3%
    Wyoming3Trump0.0%0.0%99.8%0.2%
  • These major polls have been added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:
    PollsterState or FederalStart DateEnd DateSample SizeTrump %Biden %
    Data for ProgressFederal9/1/209/1/2069542.853.0
    Data for ProgressFederal9/1/209/1/2075944.051.6

NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-

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