Biden Has 69.4% Chance of Winning Election: FiveThirtyEight

(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden stands a 69.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 3 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 319 of 538 electoral votes.

• The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 30.1%
• According to the Sept. 3 run of the model, Trump had a 17.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 82.4%
• The national polling average for Trump reached 42.8% on Sept. 3 compared with 42.8% on Sept. 2
• Biden’s national polling average reached 50.3% on Sept. 3 compared with 50.4% on Sept. 2
• These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 3:

  State	Electoral Votes	2016 Winner	Trump Poll Avg	Biden Poll Avg	Trump Win Chance	Biden Win Chance
  Alabama	9	Trump	57.4%	38.4%	98.0%	2.0%
  Alaska	3	Trump	49.6%	45.0%	81.5%	18.5%
  Arizona	11	Trump	43.7%	48.9%	41.1%	58.9%
  Arkansas	6	Trump	47.0%	45.0%	93.6%	6.4%
  California	55	Clinton	30.9%	61.3%	0.3%	99.7%
  Colorado	9	Clinton	40.1%	52.3%	14.7%	85.3%
  Connecticut	7	Clinton	34.3%	53.8%	2.1%	97.9%
  Delaware	3	Clinton	38.5%	57.3%	0.3%	99.7%
  District of Columbia	3	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
  Florida	29	Trump	44.7%	49.4%	40.2%	59.8%
  Georgia	16	Trump	46.6%	45.6%	68.7%	31.3%
  Hawaii	4	Clinton	30.3%	56.7%	1.4%	98.6%
  Idaho	4	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	99.4%	0.6%
  Illinois	20	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	99.5%
  Indiana	11	Trump	53.0%	38.4%	95.3%	4.7%
  Iowa	6	Trump	46.2%	45.1%	69.8%	30.2%
  Kansas	6	Trump	50.7%	41.0%	93.0%	7.0%
  Kentucky	8	Trump	55.1%	39.7%	97.5%	2.5%
  Louisiana	8	Trump	53.2%	39.3%	92.6%	7.4%
  Maine	4	Clinton	40.1%	50.7%	23.1%	76.9%
  Maryland	10	Clinton	35.1%	59.6%	0.3%	99.7%
  Massachusetts	11	Clinton	29.5%	63.6%	0.3%	99.7%
  Michigan	16	Trump	42.5%	49.6%	18.7%	81.3%
  Minnesota	10	Clinton	43.7%	50.4%	25.3%	74.7%
  Mississippi	6	Trump	53.6%	40.8%	87.8%	12.2%
  Missouri	10	Trump	49.6%	43.5%	90.0%	10.0%
  Montana	3	Trump	51.4%	43.2%	88.6%	11.4%
  Nebraska	5	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	98.5%	1.5%
  Nevada	6	Clinton	41.1%	46.3%	22.9%	77.1%
  New Hampshire	4	Clinton	43.2%	50.7%	29.5%	70.5%
  New Jersey	14	Clinton	35.6%	54.1%	3.8%	96.2%
  New Mexico	5	Clinton	42.7%	53.3%	8.8%	91.2%
  New York	29	Clinton	33.2%	59.7%	0.2%	99.8%
  North Carolina	15	Trump	46.5%	48.5%	50.0%	50.0%
  North Dakota	3	Trump	55.9%	38.0%	98.8%	1.2%
  Ohio	18	Trump	47.3%	46.0%	61.6%	38.4%
  Oklahoma	7	Trump	58.4%	34.6%	99.2%	0.8%
  Oregon	7	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	8.8%	91.2%
  Pennsylvania	20	Trump	45.2%	49.1%	33.9%	66.1%
  Rhode Island	4	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	98.5%
  South Carolina	9	Trump	49.6%	43.5%	87.9%	12.1%
  South Dakota	3	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	96.6%	3.4%
  Tennessee	11	Trump	53.5%	40.0%	95.3%	4.7%
  Texas	38	Trump	47.1%	46.2%	74.6%	25.4%
  Utah	6	Trump	48.8%	36.2%	95.4%	4.6%
  Vermont	3	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	99.1%
  Virginia	13	Clinton	40.4%	51.1%	6.9%	93.1%
  Washington	12	Clinton	33.3%	58.8%	1.3%	98.7%
  West Virginia	5	Trump	64.6%	32.4%	99.3%	0.7%
  Wisconsin	10	Trump	42.7%	50.3%	26.9%	73.1%
  Wyoming	3	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	99.8%	0.2%

• These major polls have been added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:

  Pollster, Sponsor	State or Federal	Start Date	End Date	Sample Size	Trump %	Biden %
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Arizona	8/29/20	9/1/20	772 likely voters	40.0	49.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Arizona	8/29/20	9/1/20	858 reg. voters	39.0	49.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	North Carolina	8/29/20	9/1/20	722 likely voters	46.0	50.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	North Carolina	8/29/20	9/1/20	804 reg. voters	45.0	49.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Wisconsin	8/29/20	9/1/20	801 likely voters	42.0	50.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Wisconsin	8/29/20	9/1/20	853 reg. voters	41.0	49.0
  Ipsos/Reuters	Federal	8/28/20	9/1/20	1335	38.0	43.0

NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-

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