Argentina’s Sunday Primary Will Set the Stage for Macri-Fernandez Race

(Bloomberg) -- Argentines will cast their ballot this Sunday in a mandatory primary vote, which is viewed as a big opinion poll that will indicate potential support for President Mauricio Macri and opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez ahead of the October presidential elections.

Investors are closely watching the election, seen as a choice between a market-friendly candidate or the return of populism. The results will therefore determine the market’s reaction the following day.

August 11 Timeline

These are Sunday’s key events in local time:

• 8:00am: 15,000 voting centers open across the country
• 6:00pm: Voting stations close
• 9:00pm: First numbers are published on the official website; results will be updated every five minutes
• 12:00am: The government estimates that final results will be known around midnight
  • Argentines vote with paper ballots. The vote is sealed inside an envelope and is introduced in a ballot box. After 6pm, vote counting starts in each center and telegrams with the results of each voting station are assembled
    • In the previous election, these telegrams were sent to the official post office and the data was uploaded there. This year, there will be electronic scanners in the majority of centers to speed up the process

The Day After: What To Look For

Markets on Monday will primarily react to the percentage margin between Fernandez and Macri. The three main scenarios are:

• The percentage of votes that go to each candidate will be key. To win the election in October, a presidential candidate needs more than 45% of the votes or 40% with a difference greater than 10 percentage points over the second candidate
• Participation: Although voting is mandatory, participation is historically lower in primaries than in the general elections
  • In the 2015 presidential election, the participation in the first round was 81.1% compared to 74.9% in the primaries
  • A higher participation rate in this primary will give more certainty on what could happen in October
• The third space: This is the percentage of those that don’t back either Macri or Fernandez. The number will show the possibility that both candidates have to boost their support toward the October elections, and a potential November runoff
• Buenos Aires Province: The governor’s race is a key indicator for the presidential candidates, since 37% of Argentine voters live there
  • The margin between Maria Eugenia Vidal (Macri’s ally) and Axel Kicillof (Fernandez’s candidate) is the other result that will be eyed in an election known locally as “the mother of all battles”

Quotes of the Week

Keeping an eye on undecided voters, Macri’s campaign rallies were focused on highlighting infrastructure works and the fight against corruption.

“Deep changes are not accomplished overnight.”

--Mauricio Macri, President and candidate for Juntos por el Cambio

Fernandez appeared at a public event with his running mate Cristina Kirchner last Wednesday, for the first time since May 25. His message was focused on gaining ground with supporters for Kirchner, who Fernandez had heavily criticized in recent years before agreeing to team up for the election.

“I will never fight with Cristina again.”

--Alberto Fernandez, opposition candidate for Frente de Todos

--With assistance from Patrick Gillespie.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jorgelina do Rosario in Buenos Aires at jdorosario@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrea Jaramillo at ajaramillo1@bloomberg.net;Carolina Millan at cmillanronch@bloomberg.net

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