A Guide to Where Leaders Stand in Horsetrading for Top EU Jobs
A Guide to Where Leaders Stand in Horsetrading for Top EU Jobs
(Bloomberg) -- For the first time in the European Union’s history the top jobs are being contested all at once, from who leads the European Central Bank to who heads its executive arm. It’s a complicated Rubik’s cube with conflicting national and party interests.
Germany and France are key, but every country comes with its baggage and demands, willing to cut deals behind the scenes. With leaders gathering in Brussels on Thursday to get down to business, here’s what you need to know.
Big Countries
Germany
What it wants: Germany wants to secure either the presidency of the European Commission — it’s pushing for Manfred Weber from the European People’s Party — or the ECB.
Red lines: Difficult to say — Chancellor Angela Merkel keeps her red lines to herself.
Current commission post: Budget and HR
Euro member: Yes
ECB presidency hopeful: Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann.
France
What it wants: France has been much clearer about what they don’t want than what they want. But President Emmanuel Macron has named Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, center-left’s candidate Frans Timmermans (a Dutchman who currently serves as the commission’s first vice president) and EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager as possibilities for the commission, and said he wants a gender and geographical balance.
Red lines: French have ruled out Weber, saying he lacks the experience. And they refuse any “automaticity” from the Spitzenkandidat system.
Current commission post: Economic affairs, taxation and customs
Euro member: Yes
ECB presidency hopefuls: Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy De Galhau, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure.
Italy
What it wants: Government advisers have shown a preference for the economics portfolio (any post in trade, industry, internal market, economic affairs or competition)
Current commission post: Foreign affairs (vice president)
Euro member: Yes
Note: Italy will definitely lose its seat on the ECB Executive Board if the presidency doesn’t go to Germany or France.
Spain
What it wants: Officials for Spain’s acting Socialist government say their unequivocal choice for leader of the commission is Timmermans. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in the midst of negotiating with lawmakers in Spain to form a government and part of the premier’s plan for his likely second term is to ensure that Madrid has greater clout in Brussels. Sanchez’s team is eager for a Spaniard to hold a slot as one of the vice presidents on the Commission, preferably the foreign policy chief.
Current commission post: Climate action and energy
Euro member: Yes
Note: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is from Spain.
Netherlands
What it wants: The Dutch government doesn’t yet have a position regarding who should succeed EU Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, according to Prime Minister Mark Rutte. He's one of the Group of Six leaders tasked with guiding the process to fill the top EU jobs.
Current commission post: Better regulation, inter-institutional relations, rule of law (first vice president)
Euro member: Yes
ECB presidency hopefuls: Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot may have outsider chances.
The East
Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia
What they want: The leaders of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia agreed to vote together on the candidates for the EU’s top jobs.
Red lines: Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban has publicly rejected Weber as president of the commission, while Poland is likely to do everything in its power to prevent Timmermans from getting a key role in the next commission.
Own interests: Poland (currently internal market, industry) may be interested in the energy portfolio and may nominate of its MEPs, with former foreign minister Anna Fotyga and former deputy Senate speaker Adam Bielan seen as the frontrunners. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis is renominating current Justice commissioner Vera Jourova, but hasn’t specified the desired portfolio. Hungary (which currently is in charge of education) is nominating Justice Minister Laszlo Trocsanyi. Slovakia wants to renominate its current commissioner Maros Sefcovic (who is the vice president for energy union).
Euro members: No, except for Slovakia
Bulgaria
What it wants: Bulgaria’s Kristalina Georgieva, the chief executive officer of the World Bank, may be in the running for commission president as a compromise candidate. Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has said he wants to keep Mariya Gabriel as a commissioner, without insisting on a specific portfolio. This may change depending on Georgieva’s chances of succeeding Juncker.
Current commission post: Digital economy
Euro member: No, but actively pursuing membership
Croatia
What it wants: Croatia — one of the Group of Six — has said it thinks it’s counterproductive to talk about what it desires from the commission as it all depends on who the president will be. Croat Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic has been mentioned as a possible candidate to become European Council president, a role that includes chairing the summits of EU leaders.
Current commission post: International cooperation and development
Euro member: No, but actively pursuing membership
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
What they want: Estonian Prime Minister Juri Ratas favors a central and eastern European candidate to succeed Donald Tusk as council president. That’s a role for which former Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite may be in the running. Latvia, one of the Group of Six, hasn’t disclosed any preferences, though it has renominated its current commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis.
Current commission posts: Estonia: digital single market (vice president); Latvia: the euro and financial stability (vice president); Lithuania: health and food safety
Euro members: Yes
Romania
What it wants: The government is aiming for the portfolios of energy, transport or enlargement and wants and “important portfolio.” Prime Minister Viorica Dancila has expressed support for Timmermans, as she’s keen on a rapprochement with the European Socialists. Her rival, President Klaus Iohannis, who represents Romania in the council, has publicly supported Weber.
Current commission post: Regional policy
Euro member: No, but actively pursuing membership
Slovenia
What it wants: Prime Minister Marjan Sarec supports Vestager for the commission job. On the ECB, he’s said he prefers a “southern thinking” president.
Current commission post: Transport
Euro member: Yes
The North
Denmark
What it wants: Vestager would have the backing of the next government of her native Denmark, according to the prime-minister elect. Denmark is currently run by caretaker government, following June 5 elections.
Current commission post: Competition
Euro member: No
Finland
What it wants: Government has put forward former finance minister Jutta Urpilainen as its candidate for the commission. Also is hoping it may get the ECB presidency. Finland is flexible on the selection of the EU Commission.
Current commission post: Jobs, growth, investment, competitiveness (vice president)
Euro member: Yes
ECB presidency hopefuls: Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn, his predecessor Erkki Liikanen.
Sweden
What it wants: Prime Minister Stefan Lofven backs fellow Social Democrat Timmermans, whom he describes as a very capable man. But overall, he’s not a fan of the Spitzenkandidat system. He’s pushing for a 3-2 split when it comes to the gender balance in the commission. He’s not wanted to disclose which portfolios Sweden is aspiring to — but issues like inner market, jobs and climate are probably most interesting.
Current commission post: Trade
Euro member: No
The Periphery
Cyprus
What it wants: President Nicos Anastasiades backs Weber for commission president, and his party Democratic Rally, which part of the EPP bloc, insists that the first placed party in European Parliament elections should be the one to define the new commission president.
Current commission post: Humanitarian aid and crisis management
Euro member: Yes
Greece
What it wants: Alexis Tsipras’s leftist government formally backs Timmermans for commission president, but other hopefuls such as Barnier or Vestager are also seen as palatable choices. Under no circumstances will the current Greek government support Weber as commission president. However: If negotiations drag past July 7, when Greece is due to hold snap elections, the next government (likely headed by the center right) will be a strong backer of Weber for the commission.
Current commission post: Migration, home affairs
Euro member: Yes
Ireland
What it wants: Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has repeatedly voiced support for Weber as the next commission president. While not naming a preferred candidate, Varadkar has said he wants the next ECB president to continue Draghi’s policies.
Current commission post: Agriculture
Euro member: Yes
Note: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane is from Ireland
Malta
What it wants: No decisions have been communicated.
Current commission post: Environment and fisheries
Euro member: Yes
Portugal
What it wants: Prime Minister Antonio Costa, a member of the Group of Six, has said the priority is to ensure the election of the Socialist candidate, Timmermans, as commission president, but also has publicly praised Vestager.
Current commission post: Research, science and innovation
Euro member: Yes
Note: Portugal holds elections Oct. 6; Finance Minister Mario Centeno is Eurogroup President
The Center
Luxembourg
What it wants: Top priorities are climate change and the “strategic agenda” and as to the top commission job, Prime Minister Xavier Bettel has said before that Vestager is a good candidate, but in the end his wish is to get the best candidate to work on priority topics.
Current commission post: President
Euro member: Yes
Note: ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch from Luxembourg
Austria
What it wants: Austria has a caretaker government for bureaucrats. Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein has said she will decide in talks with lawmakers this week whom to support. Her ousted predecessor Sebastian Kurz has urged her to back Weber.
Current commission post: EU enlargement
Euro member: Yes
Note: Austria holds elections Sept. 29
Belgium
What it wants: Belgium has a caretaker government since December 2018 and has yet to form a federal government following May 26 elections. It is too early to say which commission portfolio Belgium wants because this is an integral part of government negotiations. Prime Minister Charles Michel is part of the Group of Six. The country has not spoken out in favor or against any candidates.
Current commission post: Employment
Euro member: Yes
The One That Wants to Leave
U.K.
What it wants: Just get me out of here
Red lines: Given Britain wants the EU to give it the best possible Brexit deal, it’s going to try to be friendly to anyone who stands a chance of getting anywhere near a position of influence.
Current commission post: Security union
Euro member: No
Read more:
--With assistance from Nikos Chrysoloras, Stephanie Bodoni, Jan Bratanic, Aaron Eglitis, Peter Flanagan, Georgios Georgiou, Boris Groendahl, John Hermse, Birgit Jennen, Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Peter Laca, Leo Laikola, Joao Lima, Rafaela Lindeberg, Wojciech Moskwa, Jeannette Neumann, Sotiris Nikas, Slav Okov, Lyubov Pronina, Nick Rigillo, Milda Seputyte, Alessandro Speciale, Ben Sills, Zoltan Simon, Marine Strauss, Chad Thomas, Radoslav Tomek, Ott Ummelas, Irina Vilcu, Gregory Viscusi and Ian Wishart.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Zoe SchneeweissViktoria Dendrinou
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