Fed Minutes, Trump’s Trade War, ECB Decision Time: Eco Day

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Welcome to Wednesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• Even though calls are growing for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and U.S. inflation is weakening, central bankers are unlikely to be swayed. Minutes of the Fed’s recent policy meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, could hold more clues
  • Senate Banking Chairman Mike Crapo said he thinks the Fed should cut interest rates to boost growth
• President Donald Trump is signaling his trade wars are far from over
  • U.S. and Chinese negotiators are discussing adding a concession on cloud computing to their trade agreement that would give foreign companies greater access to the $12 billion Chinese market
• Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have lowered the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next four quarters to slightly over 10 percent from roughly 20 percent at the end of the fourth quarter
• The European Central Bank is on high alert with all the economic growth dangers percolating as they meet Wednesday to decide policy; meanwhile the decline air-freight movements in Europe is adding to warning lights
• Finally, economic forecasting is really difficult -- just ask the IMF: Since 1999, 56 percent of its growth forecasts were too pessimistic

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoe Schneeweiss in London at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Lucy Meakin

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