Bibi Netanyahu Can Name His Team and His Price

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The ballots were still being counted around midnight when “Blue and White” leader Benny Gantz took the stage at a party rally and proclaimed victory in the 2019 Israeli election.

The crowd greeted him with wild cheers. It was the sound of people so desperate to break Bibi Netanyahu’s decade-long winning streak that they were willing to rejoice over an illusion.

But that’s all it was. There was never a real chance that Bibi would lose the election.  Not even close.

Head-to-head, Gantz’s Blue and White party tied Netanyahu’s Likud for the most Knesset seats at 35 each.  But Israeli elections are not won head-to-head.  They are a race to 61, the minimum number of parliament members needed to form a ruling coalition.

While Gantz was celebrating, Netanyahu was on the phone, firming up commitments from the leaders of the small right-wing parties that have been his partners for years. One by one they affirmed their loyalty to the Likud leader, giving him a 65-55 win—almost the same margin he has had during his most recent term.

Throughout the campaign, the leaders of Blue and White swore solemn oaths that they would never join a government led by Netanyahu, who faces possible criminal indictments for fraud and public corruption. But the moon was still shining in the election night sky when Gantz’s people began telling TV interviewers that what Israel really needs is the broadest possible government, one that will promote national unity.

In response, Likud made it clear that friends come first.  Bibi will set up a narrow coalition composed of longtime partners. Only then will he begin exploring a wider government with Blue and White. That will provide leverage; if Gantz wants to join the government, it will be as an appendage, not a vital organ.

In policy terms, a broad government would not require much contortion. Blue and White is a centrist party that agrees with Bibi on national security, foreign policy and relations with the Palestinians. It has no discernible differences with Likud on economic or social issues, either.

Gantz’s entire campaign, in fact, was based on repeatedly declaring Netanyahu unfit for leadership on the grounds that he is personally corrupt and irresponsibly willing to sacrifice democratic norms for political expediency. These are harsh words, and Gantz will have to eat them if he wants a place at the table.

Benny Gantz will most likely come around. Unlike Likud, Blue and White has a collective leadership. Gantz is merely first among equals, one of a quartet including two former Israeli Defense Forces chiefs of staff, (both of whom have, in the past, been Gantz’s senior officers) and an ambitious ex-finance minister, Yair Lapid, who controls the party’s largest faction.

These men did not sign on to spend the next few years serving on meaningless parliamentary committees and listening to windy speeches by party hacks. If Gantz can’t or won’t provide them with ministerial positions, they will get bored and walk away or strike their own deals with Bibi. This would put an end to Blue and White as a political power.  

Netanyahu doesn’t necessarily want this to happen, at least not right now. In the short run, he will find the benefits of broadening the coalition more attractive. He can fob off the Ministry of Defense on Gantz and let him take on the thankless task of fighting Hamas in Gaza. He can use the presence of secular Lapid as an excuse to ignore the most extreme demands of his rabbinical right-wing coalition partners. And he can use the bipartisan support of Blue and White in whatever he and Trump decide in the upcoming “Deal of the Century” negotiations over Israel’s borders. Gantz has already declined to endorse a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue.

Most of all, Bibi wants a broad coalition as he heads into his legal battles. He can’t expect his Blue and White colleagues to defend him, but it would be very awkward for Gantz and his party to publicly criticize their own prime minister.

Silence is sufficient. The mere presence of Blue and White ministers in the government will make them, ipso facto, character witnesses for the prime minister. Bibi’s defense is based largely on trivializing his alleged crimes. The willingness of his most vitriolic political opponents to serve alongside him would, inevitably, support this argument.

The negotiations for the sweet surrender of Blue and White are already underway. There will be the usual posturing, bluffs and threats that accompany coalition politics, but in the end, I believe Bibi will make them an offer they could refuse, but won’t.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Zev Chafets is a journalist and author of 14 books. He was a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and the founding managing editor of the Jerusalem Report Magazine.

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