Asia May See Trade War Casualty From Capital Outflow Hit
(Bloomberg) -- Escalation of the U.S.-China trade war in intensity and duration means stronger headwinds for exports and growth in Southeast Asia, but a secondary blow from capital flows though, may pack a much harder punch, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics. Taking trade and capital flow risks together, the most vulnerable among the region’s six largest economies appears to be Malaysia, followed by Thailand -- Vietnam’s exports to China account for the largest share of GDP among the Asean-6, but Malaysia and Thailand are susceptible to larger swings in capital flows. Indonesia may be more resilient, especially as the country has already incurred significant cross-border outflows from equities and bonds this year.
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