Trade Rifts, Russia Rate Hike, Carney's Brexit Warning: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Friday started:

• No end in sight. The Trump administration’s trade war with China is following an increasingly predictable pattern and that should cause a rethink for anybody hoping for a rapid resolution
• Russia’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time since 2014, following its counterparts across emerging economies as inflation risks mount with a slumping currency and threats of U.S. sanctions
  • Meanwhile in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan resumed his criticism of the nation’s central bank a day after it announced the biggest rate hike of his time in office
• In a speech in Dublin, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney followed up on a warning of the potential fallout of a no-deal Brexit to U.K. cabinet, underscoring his message that the central bank is prepared for all Brexit scenarios.
• It’s all about the output gap; Mario Draghi sees the euro-area economy expanding faster than it could normally manage, pointing to more paring back of bond-buying even as growth is downgraded
• China doesn’t have as much to shield itself against an economic downturn spawned by trade-war tensions as it did a decade ago amid the global financial crisis
• The Australian government’s woman problem just got worse
• The Bank of Japan crafted its latest forward guidance with global markets in mind, according to people familiar with the policy makers’ discussions
• Indonesia’s aggressive interest-rate increases and other rupiah-protection measures won the IMF’s backing, while the Philippines finance secretary says there’s no need to consider an out-of-cycle hike before the Sept. 27 meeting
• Finally, here’s our weekly wrap of what happened in the world economy and here’s what to be on the lookout for next week

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoe Schneeweiss in London at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Sam Unsted

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