Warnings Keep Coming About a Downturn That Will Hit in 2020

(Bloomberg) -- Everyone has 2020 vision. The year 2020 is emerging as a popular point in time for when the next economic downturn may arrive.

  • In March, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that “2020 is a real inflection point.”
  • Earlier this summer, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the U.S. economy may face a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ moment in 2020 as various forms of stimulus start to run out.
  • SocGen warned of recession prospects in 2020, thanks to labor market tightness, the rising cost of servicing debts, and the fiscal situation.
  • Yesterday, billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio echoed the same idea, warning that the U.S. was about two years from a downturn, thanks to the fading effects of the Trump tax cuts.
  • JPMorgan is out with a new model today that says the next financial crisis could come in 2020. The model is built upon such factors as the length of the existing economic expansion, asset valuations, the regulatory climate, and the degree of leverage in the economy.

If any of these forecasts come to pass, between the economic environment and the Presidential election, it should be an interesting year.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.