U.S. Pending Home Sales Fell in July Amid ‘Overheated’ Markets

(Bloomberg) -- An index measuring contracts to buy previously-owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in July, signaling that buyers are balking at higher prices and a lack of choices in some regions, according to data released Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors in Washington.

Highlights of Pending Home Sales (July)

  • Index dropped 0.7% m/m (est. 0.3% gain) to 106.2 after 1% gain (revised from 0.9% gain)
  • Gauge fell 0.5% y/y on an unadjusted basis after 4% y/y drop in June

Key Takeaways

Affordability constraints including rising mortgage rates, tepid wage gains and rising prices amid tight supplies continue to restrain prospective buyers even with a strong job market and tax cuts.

The decline reflected weakness in the South and West, which the industry group said included some “overheated” markets. The group highlighted Silicon Valley, Denver, Seattle and Nashville, Tennessee, as areas seeing a rise in listings from a year earlier.

The report is the latest sign of cooling in the U.S. housing market. An index of home prices across 20 U.S. cities increased in June at the slowest pace in nearly two years, data Tuesday showed.

The Realtors group maintained its forecast for a decrease in existing-home sales from 2017, expecting 5.46 million transactions, which would be the first annual decrease since 2014. At the start of the year, the group had projected a slight increase in sales.

Official’s Views

“Many of the most overheated real estate markets -- especially those out West -- are starting to see a slight decline in home sales and slower price growth,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Multiple years of inadequate supply in markets with strong job growth have finally driven up home prices to a point where an increasing number of prospective buyers are unable to afford it.”

Other Details

  • The index of pending sales fell 1.7 percent in the South and 0.9 percent in the West, while increasing 1 percent in the Northeast and 0.3 percent in the Midwest
  • Economists consider pending sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a deal closes, typically a month or two later

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