Brexit May Cut Tax Revenue by 13%, Scottish Government Says

(Bloomberg) -- Brexit will hit the Scottish economy and cut the semi-autonomous government’s tax revenue by as much as 13 percent by 2030, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s administration said.

Depending on the post-Brexit trading arrangement adopted by the U.K. government with the remaining 27 European Union nations, Scottish gross domestic product could be as much as 11.2 billion pounds ($14.8 billion) a year lower in 2030 than it would have been if Britain remained in the bloc, the Scottish government said in a report citing analysis by a range of research groups. In turn, that would reduce tax income by as much as 3.7 billion pounds a year.

“The only way to protect Scotland’s economy –- and the clear benefits which come from being part of the world’s biggest single market –- is to work to ensure we protect our relationship with the EU,” Sturgeon said in a statement on the Scottish government’s website. “My government is absolutely committed to pursuing every possible avenue and option to do that.”

Sturgeon has raised the prospect of a second referendum on Scottish independence in an attempt to keep Scotland within the EU following the June Brexit referendum. Her government is readying legislation to pave the way for another plebiscite. Last time in September 2014, Scots voted by 55 percent to 45 percent in 2014 to stay in the U.K. They backed remaining in the EU, in contrast to voters in England and Wales.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eddie Buckle in London at ebuckle@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Crawford at acrawford6@bloomberg.net, Rodney Jefferson