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Traders Saw the Thailand Rate Cut That Surprised Economists

Traders Saw the Thailand Rate Cut That Surprised Economists

(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s central bank cut its benchmark rate on Wednesday, a move that surprised almost all economists but was in line with trader’s expectations.

The six-month implied rate from currency forwards has fallen 40 basis points since the end of May, though part of it is due to gains in the baht. In contrast, only two of the 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey correctly predicted the decision by Bank of Thailand to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%.

Traders Saw the Thailand Rate Cut That Surprised Economists

The escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions appear to have supported the spread of the “Powell Put’’ syndrome among central bankers, with policy makers in New Zealand and India delivering rate cuts that were larger than economists had expected on Wednesday.

All eyes will be on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas meeting on Thursday, with consensus calling for a 25 basis point cut. After the shock dovish decisions this week, a bigger cut cannot be entirely ruled out, especially since Governor Benjamin Diokno has said that he sees a 50 basis point rate cut this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Marcus Wong in Singapore at mwong547@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tomoko Yamazaki at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net, Karl Lester M. Yap, Robert Brand

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