Traders Hedge Against the Doomsday Risk of Fed Rate Dropping to Zero

(Bloomberg) -- Rates traders are once again contemplating the kind of doomsday economic scenario that might prompt the Federal Reserve to slash its policy benchmark to zero.

Participants in the eurodollar market have been ponying up cash to buy options that hedge against that happening next year. Similar bets were made back in October and November, and there was renewed activity Thursday as U.S. debt markets rallied in the wake of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Bets on further Fed easing have mounted following comments by Chairman Jerome Powell that indicated the central bank would act to combat a global disinflationary downdraft. The shift in pricing came amid mounting concern about the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, which has rattled markets around the world.

The swaps market has brought forward its pricing of a quarter-point rate cut and is indicating around 56 basis points of easing by the end of 2021. Some, though, are protecting themselves against a more extreme situation, using a structure known as a call strip.

Thursday’s U.S. session saw demand re-emerge for dovish hedges that are attached to the 100 strike level across four separate eurodollar futures for 2021, according to U.S. traders familiar with the flow who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

Around 5,500 call strips related to the year’s March, June, September and December options were bought by 11 a.m. in New York at a cost of $825,000, the traders said.

The Fed on Wednesday maintained its target for fed funds at 1.50% to 1.75% and Powell indicated the central bank is happy with its monetary policy stance after cutting interest rates three times last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edward Bolingbroke in New York at ebolingbrok1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, Mark Tannenbaum

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