Trade Doubts Lurk in Yuan Fixing as Most Emerging Markets Rally

(Bloomberg) -- Considering the lack of enthusiasm for the so-called mini trade deal in China, the country’s disappointing trade data, an unexciting yuan fixing and the cautious-sounding analyst commentaries, it was a wonder that emerging markets were able to make any headway at all. But catch-up was predictably the order of the day following the U.S. rally on Friday, so most currencies strengthened, bonds were marginally higher and stocks in South Korea, China, Taiwan and Thailand led the MSCI Index to a second successive gain.

Yuan Skepticism

The yuan’s appreciation was possibly the most significant because it came after a fixing that was in line with the result of a Bloomberg survey. As our Singapore-based emerging-market strategist, Simon Flint, wrote today, the Chinese could have demonstrated their enthusiasm for Friday’s apparent progress with a symbolically stronger fix. The fact that they didn’t might be a good reason to remain skeptical a meaningful currency pact can be achieved. Today’s 0.4% gain in the yuan throws an even sharper focus on tomorrow’s fixing because it gives the Chinese authorities another chance to show their feelings about Friday. If a substantially stronger fix isn’t forthcoming, today’s fragile optimism could evaporate swiftly.

Polish Loans

The zloty extended its advance to a fifth day as Poland’s ruling Law & Justice party looked set for another four years in power after Sunday’s election, a result that would be in line with expectations. Matters may get more lively later when a Polish court decides how to apply a groundbreaking ruling by the European Union’s top tribunal relating to non zloty mortgage loans. Though today’s decision from the Warsaw court of appeals only affects a single case, it may provide a template to how other cases will be handled affecting some $31 billion of loans. Should the court go along with the EU recommendation that the loans may be annulled, there may be further pain for Polish bank stocks. The WIG20 Index declined as much as 0.7%.

Turkey Pressured

Never a dull day in Turkey. Markets took fright as the U.S. and Europe ramped up their sanctions threats against the country over its incursion into northern Syria. It didn’t help that data Monday showed Turkey’s industrial output fell for a 12th consecutive month in August. So the lira was under pressure for a second day, trading as weak as 5.9225 per dollar. Two-year domestic bond yields jumped 66 basis points to 15.89% and the Borsa Istanbul crashed through both its 100- and 200-day moving averages to trade 2.3% lower.

To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Carrigan in Dubai at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Justin Carrigan at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net, Dana El Baltaji

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.