Trump’s Trade War Is Keeping the Dollar Strong, Not the Fed

(Bloomberg) --

Donald Trump has blamed the stubbornly strong dollar on the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to slash interest rates further. But real yields suggest investors fearful of the president’s trade war are what’s keeping the greenback strong.

Consider the evidence: the U.S. currency has advanced against seven of 10 major peers this year even as the premium on inflation-adjusted Treasury yields over that of other major debt markets has narrowed since November.

Implied 10-year U.S. real yields have fallen more than a percentage point from a November high to 0.03%, driven by the Fed’s rate reduction amid muted inflation expectations. Money markets are fully pricing in a further 1% of Fed rate cuts by end-2020.

The Dollar Index rallied to the highest in more than two years in August as investors sought shelter in havens amid growing concerns the trade dispute could tip the global economy into a recession.

“It’s natural for the dollar to be strong,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief currency strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Trump is waging a trade war against economies that earn a surplus from the U.S. and making the strong American economy even stronger.”

Investors may gain more insight on the outlook for U.S. interest rates and the fallout from the trade war when policy makers gather at the Jackson Hole symposium and the Group-of-7 meeting over the coming week.

The G-7 summit, which starts Aug. 24, may end without a joint communique due to differences on free trade and climate change, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK. If that occurs, it would be the first gathering to conclude without a joint statement since the meetings began in 1975.

The dollar’s outperformance has prompted Trump to attack Fed policy for eroding the U.S.’s competitive edge. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who voted to keep rates unchanged at the last review, on Monday downplayed the need for more easing, saying he’s not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the U.S. economy.

The inflation-adjusted yield differential used in the chart above was constructed using 10-year inflation-linked bonds issued by the U.S., Germany, Japan, U.K., Canada and Sweden. The average was derived using the same weights as those for the Dollar Index, minus Switzerland, which was excluded as it does not issue comparable sovereign securities.

--With assistance from Stephen Spratt.

To contact the reporters on this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net;Hiroko Komiya in Tokyo at hkomiya1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tan Hwee Ann at hatan@bloomberg.net, Liau Y-Sing, Nicholas Reynolds

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