The Real Signal Commodities Are Sending on Global Inflation

(Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg Economics’ model shows movements in commodity prices this year have been mainly driven by risk appetite, not fundamental demand or shortages of supply. In the great inflation debate, the rally in everything from copper to soybeans to lumber has been a point in favor of the reflation hawks. As the recent fall from the peak suggests, a rise in commodity prices driven primarily by speculation is also prone to a sudden reversal, so the hawks’ argument is not as strong as it first appears, and the debate is far from over.

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