Saudi Crude Exports Have Yet to Fully Recover From Attacks
Saudi Crude Exports Have Yet to Fully Recover From Attacks
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia’s crude exports haven’t fully recovered from attacks on key oil facilities almost two weeks ago, even as the kingdom races to resume full production after the incident.
Observed crude loadings dropped to about 5.86 million barrels a day from Sept. 14 -- the day of the attacks -- through Sept. 25, preliminary tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with 6.74 million barrels a day in the 13 days prior to the incident.
Saudi Arabia is still recovering from the drone and missile assault -- the biggest-ever attacks on its oil industry -- that knocked out about 5.7 million barrels a day, about half of the country’s output. The U.S. blamed the incident on Iran, which denied responsibility. Saudi officials said the state energy company, known as Saudi Aramco, won’t reduce shipments this month because it will draw down strategic reserves. In addition to in-country inventories, the kingdom stockpiles in states including Egypt and the Netherlands.
So far, the kingdom is recovering faster than expected. Aramco has increased total production capacity, or its ability to pump, to more than 11 million barrels a day, and boosted actual crude output to more than 8 million barrels a day this week, according to separate people briefed on each situation.
The company has said it will bring back all lost production by the end of the month. It has also said that full capacity of 12 million barrels a day won’t be available until November.
Still, the disruption to the Middle East’s biggest oil supplier has created intense debate about when the country’s oil industry will return to pre-attack levels. Earlier this week the Saudi cabinet congratulated the king and crown prince for returning supplies to “previous levels.”
But some analysts have said the recovery will take longer. A return to full production by the end of the month is too optimistic, according to Rystad Energy. Aramco isn’t likely to fully restore the 5.7 million barrels a day of lost output until the end of November, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of London-based consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., wrote in a note Monday.
Exports Goal
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, however, said that the size of Saudi oil inventories and spare capacity may help the kingdom achieve its goal of maintaining exports this month.
There does seem to have been a dip in shipments since the attacks, and weekly flows provide a nuanced picture. In the first week of the month, loadings were at an average of 7.24 million barrels daily -- higher than usual, given the current era of production cuts. In the second week, including the day of the attacks, shipments dropped to 6.71 million barrels a day. They then declined to 5.55 million in the third week and were at an average of 5.38 million barrels daily through the first four days of this week.
So far this month, Saudi crude exports are averaging 6.36 million barrels a day, compared with a revised 6.69 million barrels in August. While it’s too soon to provide exact volumes, the top destinations for September appear to be China, India and South Korea. Flows to the U.S. and Egypt seem to be lower than in August. Click here for a PDF of observed cargoes through Sept. 25.
The attacks occurred relatively close to Saudi Arabia’s primary oil-export area on the Persian Gulf, which includes the ports of Ras Tanura and Ju’aymah, and shipments appeared to continue even in the immediate aftermath of the incident. Vessels that loaded on Sept. 14 include the tankers Advantage Summer, Libra Trader, Marina M, and Sri Vishnu.
Some loadings were likely under way when the attacks occurred. A cluster of tankers that formed around the same area -- near Ju’aymah in particular -- in the wake of the event dispersed within several days.
--With assistance from Julian Lee.
To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Wingfield in London at bwingfield3@bloomberg.net;Prejula Prem in London at pprem1@bloomberg.net;Anthony DiPaola in Dubai at adipaola@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net, John Deane, Bruce Stanley
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