Russia Gambit at Iran Nuclear Talks Casts Pall Over Diplomacy
Russia Gambit at Iran Nuclear Talks Casts Pall Over Diplomacy
(Bloomberg) -- A Russian gambit linking its war on Ukraine to negotiations aimed at restoring a key nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers is poised to postpone an anticipated resolution of the talks.
The Kremlin’s demand for U.S. guarantees that sanctions imposed over its Ukraine invasion won’t affect Moscow’s business with Iran has sparked concern among some diplomats. While it so far appears unlikely to derail the nuclear talks completely, it adds new complications to negotiations that envoys had predicted would conclude as early as this week.
France’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday expressed concern over the risks posed by further delays, saying in a statement it was “essential” that a deal be reached “while there’s still time.”
France along with Germany and the U.K. called on “all other parties to adopt a responsible approach and to take the necessary decisions to conclude this agreement.”
Iran’s chief negotiator in Vienna, Ali Bagheri Kani, is set to return to Vienna Wednesday after an unexpected “short trip” to consult with officials in Tehran, state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported. It said “important issues” remain in the talks and that “no definite time” had been set for a final agreement. Though a major obstacle was cleared on Saturday, negotiations to curb Iran’s nuclear work remain snarled over the scope and timing of U.S. sanctions relief.
European Union deputy foreign policy chief Enrique Mora, who’s coordinating talks, said on Twitter that technical discussions to restore the 2015 accord have concluded and that it’s now time for senior politicians to make decisions. He suggested that Russia’s new demands were just “noise,” echoing a position taken by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday.
“The sanctions that are being put in place and that have been put in place on Russia have nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal and the prospects of getting back into that agreement,” the top U.S. diplomat said in an interview with CBS News. They are “just are not in any way linked together. So I think that’s irrelevant.”
While Iran previously used Russia to export excess enriched-uranium inventories in order to comply with the atomic agreement, Tehran could use a third country, just as it did with extra heavy-water stockpiles sent to Oman. In the past, Iran has also traded uranium with China and has an open invitation to participate in an international nuclear fuel bank in Kazakhstan.
Russia does have an explicit obligation to help Iran develop its Fordow enrichment plant into an isotope manufacturing center. But completing that project is a long-term commitment and Iran could still win sanctions relief by disabling the site’s enrichment capacity, as envisaged under the original agreement.
“Russia seems keen to take Iran down with it. But if Tehran and Washington really want a deal, they can do it without Moscow,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. “Substituting Russia’s role in the deal is difficult, but not impossible.”
European and U.S. diplomats have been warning since July that the window of opportunity was closing on the agreement, with Iran’s rapid nuclear advancements threatening to make the original accord obsolete. Restoration of the agreement would allow Iran to re-enter international oil markets and significantly raise crude exports at a time of surging energy prices and market instability.
Russia’s eleventh-hour pronouncement that it needs guarantees suggests the country is now trying to create problems with the endgame of the talks, according to two officials with knowledge of the negotiations who asked not to be identified. They both said they’re concerned by the signal Moscow is sending.
So far, Iran has responded cautiously. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said his country won’t allow any “foreign element” to influence its interests in the nuclear talks and the ministry said it is seeking clarity from Moscow. A subsequent call between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Amirabdollahian on Monday confirmed that Russia had formally submitted its concerns to Iran.
On Tuesday, the state-run Nour News, which is closely aligned to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a tweet that the next few days will show whether the focus of Iranian negotiators shifts from “U.S. obstacles” to “assessing Russia’s demand.”
The council is Iran’s most senior security body and has a key role in foreign policy related to the nuclear program. Its secretary, Ali Shamkhani, tweeted on Monday that the U.S. was delaying the finalization of a deal because it wasn’t making the necessary “political decisions.” He also said that the Islamic Republic would “seek creative ways” to address “new elements that bear on the negotiations,” likely a reference to Russia’s demands.
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