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Ruble, Mexican Peso Slide as Crude Plunges Below Zero: Inside EM

Ruble, Peso Tumble in Tandem as Crude Glut Grows Amid Lockdowns

(Bloomberg) -- The Russian ruble and Mexican peso tumbled Monday as oil futures plunged below zero for the first time.

The unprecedented sell-off hammered other commodity-sensitive currencies, including Brazil’s real and Colombia’s peso. Meantime, Petroleos Mexicanos bonds slid after Moody’s Investors Service slashed its rating to junk on Friday. MSCI’s emerging-market equity index also sank as stocks from Qatar to Saudi Arabia and Brazil declined.

The oil rout hasn’t been halted by a production-cut deal struck a week ago between OPEC, Russia, Mexico and other producers, as global stay-at-home orders imposed to stop the spread of the coronavirus torpedo demand. In a chaotic trading session Monday, the price for May contracts wiped out all their value, breaking every low for oil prices since 1946. The exchange where WTI futures trade said the contract would be allowed to price below zero.

“Lower oil prices in the U.S. and still low prices for Brent will continue to hinder emerging-market growth recovery,” Guillaume Tresca, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole SA in Montrouge, France, wrote in a report. “It could put a floor on the ruble’s recovery.”

Markets:

  • MSCI EM Stock Index fell 0.3% to 898.5 points
  • MSCI EM Currency Index dropped 0.1%
  • Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
  • Brent Crude tumbled 6.6% to $26.24
  • UST 10-year yield declined 2.85 basis points to 0.61%

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LATAM

  • Bolsonaro Mingles With Crowds Again in Push to Reopen Economy
  • Brazil Central Bank Closer to Buying Bonds as Bill Clears Senate
  • Brazilian Beef Shipments Show China Resurgence, Mideast Plunge
  • Mexico City Hospitals at Near Full Capacity as Virus Spreads
  • Argentina’s Economy Minister Backs Wealth Tax, Rejects Austerity
  • Fernandez Says Macron Backs Paris Club Debt Delay for Argentina
CountryCurrencyBenchmark Bond YieldStock Index
BrazilUSD/BRL +1.4% to 5.3078+6.51bps to 4.28%-0.1%
MexicoUSD/MXN +1.6% to 24.0934+13.9bps to 7.06%-0.6%

EMEA

  • Erdogan, Trump Agree to Maintain Economic Cooperation on Virus
  • Turkey in Talks With Other Central Banks on Currency Swap Lines
  • Russia 2020 Budget Deficit May Reach $76b Equivalent: Izvestia
  • South African Airways Nears Collapse With Employee-Cuts Plan
  • Mboweni’s Star Rises as Power Shifts in South Africa Cabinet
  • South African Gangs Declare Truce as Lockdown Stifles Drug Trade
  • Poland Extends Filing Dates, Eases Rules for Tax Groups
  • Retail Investors Return to Warsaw Bourse to Bet on Stock Rebound
  • Poland Presidential Voting Intention: Summary of Polls (Table)
CountryCurrencyBenchmark Bond YieldStock Index
TurkeyUSD/TRY +0.2% to 6.9448-157bps to 12.56%+0.8%
RussiaUSD/RUB +1.6% to 75.2300-15bps to 6.19%-0.4%
South AfricaUSD/ZAR +0.3% to 18.8698Little changed at 10.32%-0.6%
PolandEUR/PLN +0.2% to 4.5272+2.63bps to 1.45%+0.9%

ASIA

  • India’s Sovereign Bonds Rally on Signs of Purchases by the RBI
  • Alibaba to Invest $28 Billion Over Three Years in Cloud
  • Rare Index Glitch Caused by System Upgrade, Shanghai Bourse Says
  • New Zealand to Ease Lockdown Restrictions in a Week
  • Everything China Is Doing to Support Its Markets During Pandemic
  • Most India Stocks Decline After Friday Rally; HDFC Bank Climbs
  • Japan Bolsters Budget by 8.9 Trillion Yen for Handouts, NHK Says
  • HDFC Bank’s Margins to Lure Investors as Indian Rivals Struggle
  • China Pledges More Stimulus as Banks Cut Lending Rates
CountryCurrencyBenchmark Bond YieldStock Index
ChinaUSD/CNY little changed at 7.0736+3.4bps to 2.59%+0.5%
IndiaUSD/INR +0.2% to 76.5500-13.8bps to 6.21%+0.2%
South KoreaUSD/KRW +0.2% to 1,220.4100n/a-0.8%
MalaysiaUSD/MYR +0.1% to 4.3720-12.1bps to 2.93%+0.4%
IndonesiaUSD/IDR -0.3% to 15,413.0000-13.5bps to 7.77%-1.3%
ThailandUSD/THB little changed at 32.4990-7.74bps to 1.28%+2.2%

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