Investors Cast Wary Eye on Market Open With Bad News Piling Up
Trading may have stopped, but the drumbeat of alarming headlines hasn’t.
(Bloomberg) -- The first U.S. coronavirus death. Signs the disease is squeezing China’s economy. A possible outbreak in Washington State. Trading may have stopped, but the drumbeat of alarming headlines hasn’t. That’s making investors anxious about what happens when markets reopen.
While considerable bad news has already been priced in to stocks, with the S&P 500 down 13% in seven sessions and volatility surging, markets have to date been helpless to right themselves amid a torrent of virus-related bulletins. Those haven’t slowed down this weekend.
“The news flow today is quite negative and it will make the narrative between now and Monday morning even more important than it was on Friday,” said Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., warning that it’s still too early for worst-case scenarios. “That said, today’s markets are highly impacted by momentum-based mechanized trading. If things get going in one direction, it’s very hard to turn around.”
Most investors reached on Saturday counseled perspective, saying that after the worst plunge since 2008, valuations are adjusting to the prospect of slower economic growth and the disease’s human toll. As of Friday, U.S. stocks traded at roughly the five-year average relative to expected earnings. They were sporting some of the highest multiples in 20 years just two weeks ago.
“What is critical from an investor perspective is the market has significantly marked down on those fears,” said David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors in Westchester, New York. “As the news comes out over the next few weeks, a lot has been discounted already.”
At an afternoon press conference to announce new steps to halt the disease’s spread, President Donald Trump said “markets will all come back” from the sell-off that has erased $6 trillion from global equities. He urged the Federal Reserve to “do its job” and cut interest rates while his administration focuses on public safety. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the virus poses evolving risks to the economy and signaled the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates if necessary.
“It’s certainly not a good situation, when you lose travel that’s a big part of the market, but for a period of time we’re going to have to do whatever is necessary,” Trump said. “Safety, health, number one -- the markets will take care of themselves. The companies are very powerful, our consumer has never been in a better position than they are right now.”
A patient Trump described as “medically high risk” from Washington state became the first confirmed U.S. fatality linked to the coronavirus. Washington state health officials had earlier identified two new cases, including a person who had no known travel history or encountered anyone who had visited affected areas.
Data Hit
Highlighting the virus’s economic toll, data Saturday from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed activity in the country’s manufacturing sector contracted sharply in February, with the official gauge hitting the lowest level on record. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index plunged to 35.7 in February from 50 the previous month, much lower than economists predicted.
“It’s absolutely worse as a drip of news,” said Nathan Thooft, Manulife Asset Management’s head of global asset allocation. “Investors want certainty whether good or bad. A drip, drip of news leaves the uncertainty door wide open.”
Late Saturday, Washington State officials said they are investigating a potential outbreak of coronavirus at a health facility that cares for elderly, vulnerable patients, after two people at the facility were infected. More than 50 residents and staff at the facility have shown symptoms of a respiratory illness, according to Jeff Duchin, health officer for public health in Seattle and King County.
From its closing level of 2,954.22 Friday, the S&P 500 would need to fall another 8.3% to complete the 20% tumble that traditionally signifies a bear market. No such decline has occurred in U.S. indexes since March 2009, making the rally that began in that month by some measures the longest ever.
“My belief is that this is a correction and not the end of the bull market,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Davidson Advisory Group. “We are likely to have an economic shock here in the U.S., but I don’t believe we will get two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Because we won’t get a recession due to the coronavirus, the bull market will continue.”
Futures trading in U.S. equity indexes resume at 6 p.m. New York time Sunday.
--With assistance from Claire Ballentine.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.net;Vildana Hajric in New York at vhajric1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, James Ludden
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