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India Turns to Expensive Foreign LNG to Ease a Power Crisis

Sweltering heat and ongoing blackouts are forcing India’s liquefied natural gas importers to top up with expensive shipments.

India Turns to Expensive Foreign LNG to Ease a Power Crisis
Pipelines run from the dock to liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks at the Haldia Dock Complex, West Bengal. (Photographer: Sanjit Das/Bloomberg)

Sweltering heat and ongoing blackouts are forcing India’s liquefied natural gas importers to top up with expensive shipments.

Torrent Power Ltd. and GAIL India Ltd. bought LNG for May delivery in the last week, with the fuel set to be used to help power plants boost generation, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The utilities paid about triple the normal spot rate for this time of year, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbates a global supply crunch. 

India Turns to Expensive Foreign LNG to Ease a Power Crisis

The purchases are unusual for India’s cost-sensitive power generators, which tend to avoid buying LNG at such high rates. They illustrate how a domestic coal shortage is forcing the South Asian nation to look for alternative fuels no matter the price, further elevating international demand. 

While natural gas makes up just a small portion of India’s power mix, a scarcity of coal and hot weather has triggered scheduled blackouts, threatening to upend the economy. Gas was used to produce about 4% of the nation’s electricity in 2020, versus 71% for coal, according to BloombergNEF.

GAIL is seeking at least one more shipment for late-May, the traders said, adding that several other Indian firms are inquiring about cargoes in the bilateral market.

The heat wave also prompted neighboring Pakistan to purchase the nation’s most expensive shipment of the fuel ever to avoid blackouts during the Eid holiday this week. Cash-strapped Pakistan recently released a tender seeking to purchase another two cargoes for June.

“This time of year is when South Asia, namely India and Pakistan, have their hottest weather in advance of the monsoon,” said Jason Nicholls, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. “These areas will likely continue to be favored for heat waves until the monsoon rains arrive in June and July.”

Thailand’s PTT purchased a cargo for delivery in late May to the Map Ta Phut terminal at about $23 to $24/mmbtu, traders said. The Southeast Asian country imported record amounts of LNG during the first quarter, Cheniere Energy Inc. said Wednesday.

Drivers

 

  • The EU’s plan to replace Russian gas imports, combined with growth in demand from Asia will lead to tight and potentially volatile natural gas market in the near term: Cheniere
  • New Fortress Energy Inc. is looking to expand a proposed liquefied natural gas export terminal off the coast of Louisiana amid expectations for higher overseas fuel demand
  • Japan’s trade minister Koichi Hagiuda called on the U.S. to ramp up production of liquefied natural gas as it seeks to cut dependence on energy from Russia following the Ukraine invasion: Reuters
  • Europe gas storage was at about 34% of capacity on Monday, compared with the five-year average of 40% for this time of year
  • Estimated gas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were about 12.2 bcf/day on Wednesday, -5.7% w/w: BNEF
News & Research

Buy tenders:

CompanyCargoesDestinationDeliveryOffers DueValid Until
Gail1 DES cargoIndiaMay 30-June 1May 5May 5
Pakistan2 DES cargoesPort QasimJuneMay 11 
Vessel Rates:
  • Pacific spot earnings for a 160k-cubic-meter vessel at $48,000/day on May 4, +$750 from the previous session, according to Spark Commodities, which takes assessments from LNG shipbrokers
    • Atlantic spot earnings at $49,750/day on May 4, +$250 from the previous session: Spark
    • NOTE: Spark values are calculated on a round-trip basis, which includes hire, ballast bonus and lump sum estimates
Futures Prices:
  • Japan-Korea Marker futures for June delivery +54c to $24.04/mmbtu on Wednesday
    • July contract +$1.10 to $23.225
  • Dutch TTF futures for June delivery on ICE settled at the equivalent of +$1.66 to $32.31/mmbtu Wednesday, according to Bloomberg calculations
    • July contract +$1.72 to $32.32

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.