Here Are Nomura's 9 ‘Gray Swans’ That Could Hit Markets in 2019
After a year of chaos, you get the feeling they really had to dig deep to come up with some potential shocks.
(Bloomberg) -- Hot on the heels of HSBC’s top 10 risks for 2019, Nomura’s annual “Gray Swans” listicle has just hit inboxes. After a year of chaos, you get the feeling they really had to dig deep to come up with some potential shocks. In full:
1: End of populism
2: Oil price plunges to $20/bbl
3: The big market quake
4: Italian renaissance
5: EM deflation
6: CNY comeback
7: Global growth takes off
8: Deflating euro area
9: Inflation sonic boom
“So collapsing stock prices, a contagious sovereign crisis in Europe and Chinese defaults would be the obvious manifestation of a market quake,” strategists including Bilal Hafeez wrote.
HSBC and Nomura opted to include both positive and negative risks -- perhaps attempting to add a dose of optimism at the end of the brutal year. And there are plenty of negative scenarios for Europe.
Sure, Nomura contemplates the possibility of an Italian renaissance or an end to populism. But fears of a deflationary trap and a full-blown euro-area crisis may sound more persuasive, as France grapples with the gilets jaunes, and Brexit lurches from drama to crisis.
To contact the reporter on this story: Samuel Potter in London at spotter33@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Samuel Potter at spotter33@bloomberg.net, Sid Verma, Cecile Gutscher
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