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Guinea Forges Ahead With Referendum That May Entrench Conde

Guinea Forges Ahead With Referendum That Could Entrench Conde

(Bloomberg) -- Guineans took the polls Sunday in a controversial referendum to revise the constitution, paving the way for President Alpha Conde to seek a third term, despite concern from the European Union and regional heads of state.

The vote that takes place on the same day as long-delayed parliamentary elections is widely seen as a power grab by the 82-year-old president, who assumed office in 2010 and is due to step down this year after completing two five-year terms.

The world’s biggest bauxite exporter has a history of authoritarian rule. Its first two presidents, Sekou Toure and Lansana Conte, died in office after clinging to power for 26 and 24 years respectively. At Conte’s death in 2008, military junta leader Dadis Camara ruled for a year until he was incapacitated by an assassination attempt.

While Conde hasn’t explicitly said he plans to seek a third term, the European Parliament has urged him to preserve current presidential term limits, and nations from the U.S. to France have reiterated the need for a democratic transition of power. The opposition has objected to a new constitution that will reset the clock. Presidential elections are due in October.

Conde has argued that the constitutional changes are necessary because the current law, drawn up under the military junta, is out of date.

Last-Minute Visit

African leaders are worried too. The West African economic bloc on Tuesday canceled a last-minute visit by the presidents of Niger, Nigeria and Burkina Faso, their second such attempt to discuss the poll with Conde, who canceled the first meeting. This time around, the visit was scrapped over widening travel restrictions and concerns about the coronavirus pandemic. Guinea confirmed its first case, a Belgian national, on March 13.

Conde earlier this week banned flights from high-risk countries, cautioned people against shaking hands and prohibited gatherings of more than 50 people. Several polling stations in the capital, Conakry, were equipped with hand-washing stations but few voters stood at a distance from each other.

Conde postponed the referendum and parliamentary elections, originally scheduled for March 3, for almost three weeks after international observers questioned whether the vote would be credible. The African Union withdrew its election observer mission earlier this month, citing concerns about the voters roll.

Yet Conde has the support of at least one important nation: Russia.

Last year, the country’s then-ambassador to Guinea, Alexander Bregadze, openly backed Conde in a speech and said that constitutions “are no dogma, Bible or Koran.” Bregadze has since been named head of United Co. Rusal, the largest producer of aluminum outside China. Rusal sources about one-third of its bauxite from Guinea, the key ingredient in aluminum.

“Russian actors are betting on Conde to win, in which case the ties between the two countries could grow even stronger,” said Daphne Piriou, a consultant at London-based strategic advisory firm Africa Practice.

Since October, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets to call on Conde to abandon any potential third-term plans. At least 37 people were killed in crackdowns by security forces, according to human-rights groups. Sunday’s vote will be boycotted by all main opposition parties, with one of its most influential leaders, former Prime Minister Celou Dallein Diallo, predicting a low turnout.

The proposals to change the constitution have even caused a rift within the ruling Rally of the Guinean People and prompted three ministers to resign. While Conde has hinted a third term should be allowed, he has so far refused to discuss whether he plans to run again in October, saying the ruling party will select a candidate.

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