Goldman Still Prefers Silver Even If Short Squeeze Unattainable

Silver’s manic Monday rally was never going to be enough to squeeze the shorts as those positions are backed by physical stock, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Still, silver remains the bank’s preferred precious metal.

Silver surged to an eight-year high as a trading frenzy poured money into exchange-traded funds and cleaned out retail dealers. The metal since has given up most of its gains as investors cash out, but position limits and ample physical supply mean a squeeze of the kind seen on GameStop Corp. shares was always “unattainable,” said Goldman analysts led by Jeffrey Currie.

“While some shorts are speculative and require covering before expiry, most are driven by industrial producers hedging their forward earnings,” the analysts wrote in a note. “When commodity short positions are broadly backed by real physical stock, there will be no subsequent buying and no short squeeze.”

Silver’s decline on Tuesday echoes the crash in other trades popular with Reddit crowds, but Goldman retains its upbeat view on the precious metal. The bank sees prices rising as high as $33 an ounce if U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration pushes aggressively into solar power.

Spot silver traded down 5.6% at $27.4178 an ounce as of 1:44 p.m. in London.

Silver’s rally also underlines the growing importance of populism in markets and politics, Goldman said. That should encourage more expansionary policies as governments address “social need,” a trend that underpins the bank’s bullish commodity outlook.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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