Goldman Says Top Stocks Set to Avert Fate of Dot-Com Bubble
(Bloomberg) -- Technology giants may be dominating the S&P 500 Index by the most in 20 years, but will likely avert a dot-com bubble redux, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The mighty FAAMG cohort that includes Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Facebook Inc. collectively accounts for about 18% of the benchmark gauge. Back in 2000, the market was dominated by five behemoths that were priced at a big premium to the index just before the stock crash.
“Lower growth expectations, lower valuations, and greater re-investment suggest the current concentration may be more sustainable than it proved to be in 2000,” strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note Friday.
The collective three-year growth investment ratio of the FAAMG stocks totals 48% -- more than double that of the overall S&P 500. The top five in 2000 were laggards by that measure, coming in at 26% versus 34% for the broader benchmark.
And then there are valuations -- the giants of 20 years ago traded at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 47, Goldman said, reflecting lofty expectations that weren’t met by full-year 2001 results.
These days, the only one of the top five with a P/E ratio above that level is Amazon, while the others are all clustered around the 20s, according to Goldman and data compiled by Bloomberg. The firm also noted strong results in the recent earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon. Alphabet’s Google reports results after the close on Monday.
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“In order to avoid repeating the share price collapse experienced by their predecessors, today’s market cap leaders will need to at least meet -- and preferably exceed -- current consensus growth expectations,” Kostin wrote. “This time, expectations seem more achievable based on recent results and management guidance.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% at 2:03 p.m. Monday, with a gauge of tech shares climbing 1.2%.
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