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Boris Johnson fights on, markets get a boost, and Ray Dalio reckons a recession might be coming. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Johnson Fights On

The U.K. prime minister is really running short of options now, having been forced to give up fighting his opponents in Parliament after a series of humiliating defeats. Boris Johnson doubled down on his plan to trigger a general election (in the hopes of winning, of course) so he can fulfill his pledge to take the U.K. out of the European Union — with or without a divorce deal — on Oct. 31. Meanwhile the prime minister’s own brother, Jo Johnson, resigned from the Cabinet in protest at the latest Brexit developments. Boris Johnson didn’t say if he’d resign if he failed, but he did declare, rather dramatically, that he’d “rather be dead in a ditch” than agree to another Brexit delay. “We want an election on October 15 and indeed earlier,” Johnson said in a speech Thursday, an announcement seen by many as an attempt to get a head start in an election campaign.

Market Boost

Stocks in Asia looked set for gains after a strong session on Wall Street as a slew of data bolstered confidence in the American economy, and treasuries tumbled. Futures ticked higher in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia, while the S&P 500 advanced over 1% as trade hostilities appeared to ease between the U.S. and China. Strong private payrolls data and a better-than-expected reading on the services sector tamped down recession angst, while yields on Treasuries jumped amid a deluge of investment-grade corporate supply. News, too, that top Chinese and American officials agreed to restart talks aimed at ending the trade war is helping boost sentiment, and adds to a renewed appetite for risk assets that took hold earlier in the week. After the strong U.S. economic data, focus is now likely to shift to remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the latest jobs report, both due Friday. The dollar edged lower, and elsewhere, concern is  turning to soy, corn, cotton and livestock in Georgia and the Carolinas as Dorian churns northward.

Recession Reckoning

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, said there’s about a 25% chance of a U.S. recession this year and in 2020 and that central bankers will have little power to address it. Dalio pointed to a confluence of factors, questioning the gap between the rich and poor, the U.S. election, the growing influence of China and even the effectiveness of central banks in the first place. His recommendation? That the Fed cut interest rates slowly, maybe by 25 basis points, without giving a time period. The Fed cut rates for the first time in more than a decade back in July, and is expected to ease by another quarter of a percentage point this month. Yet bearish wagers on global interest rates hasn’t seemed to get Dalio too far this year: Bridgewater’s main hedge fund, Pure Alpha, lost 6% this year through Aug. 23, largely due to betting on downward interest rates.

More Ghosn Payouts

Nissan Motor Co. overpaid a whole host of other executives in addition to its chief executive officer, according to people with knowledge of the matter. They include Senior Vice President Hari Nada, a key figure in the downfall of former chairman Carlos Ghosn, Executive Vice President Asako Hoshino, and at least two other executives, the people said. In a hint of what was to come, CEO Hiroto Saikawa told reporters earlier this week that he and several other Nissan executives received excess compensation — Saikawa received about 47 million yen ($440,281), according to one of the people. The story kicked off last year when Ghosn, who deepened Nissan’s alliance with Renault SA and drove the company’s strategy for decades, was arrested for financial crimes in November last year, but he denies the charges against him. Nada used to be the head of Nissan’s CEO office, and struck a plea-bargain deal with prosecutors ahead of Ghosn’s arrest.

Buckle Up Down Under

It’s going to get harder for Australian pension funds to make money. After the strong recent performance of equities and fixed-income left valuations lofty in public markets, funds Down Under will be forced to push more money into less traditional assets, such as apartment developments and even direct lending to companies. Managers predict a flow of money away from equities, bonds, and cash, which currently account for nearly 80% of their holdings. The investors, who manage the country’s A$2.9 trillion ($2 trillion) pension pool, think returns are going to be below recent years, which saw funds deliver a 10th straight year of gains for 2019, according to a Chant West report July. It’s going to be a tough ask, according to Ross Etherington, chief investment officer at EISS Super, which manages about A$5.8 billion.

What We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the weekend.

• No one “wins a trade war,” say tech leaders caught in the crossfire.
• Fears over a U.S. missile shield in a Japanese suburb hobble Abe’s plan.
• Asia’s beaches go quiet as Chinese tourists stay home.
• China’s hog crisis means there's now a huge demand for (wait for it) pig sperm.
• There are superbugs deadlier than cancer, and they’re putting chemotherapy into question.
• Apple is planning a new cheap iPhone.
• SoftBank has more riding on WeWork than even its co-founder.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alyssa McDonald at amcdonald61@bloomberg.net

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